Carmack: Mobile Tech Surpassing Console in 2yrs

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therabiddeer

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Well, we should be getting the next gen consoles in a couple of years though, right? I mean, sure phones have gone fast in tech, but current consoles are 6 years old now... and hell, smartphones without a contract cost more than a console anyway.
 

pocketdrummer

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I doubt it. Even with new tech coming out for phones, I don't think they can get the power that high and keep the power usage low enough to reach that level any time soon. Unless, of course, they start making iPad sized "smartphones".

Apart from that, why do we care what John Carmack thinks again?
 
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Handheld, console, and PC technologies have different architecture but they influence one another. (By their logic) If/when the handheld is as powerful as the console then the console will have to at least stay where the handheld is (as far as power goes).
 

MasterMace

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Therabiddeer: No. Microsoft and Sony have both stated that the 360 and PS3 are only 1/2way thru their life cycles.


To be honest, their reasoning is justified considering software takes so long to develop. What companies are going to have to do is make much larger design teams to keep up with the pace of gaming. 4 year development cycles? What is that? Movies are made faster. If it takes longer than a year, it's not going to fly.
 

campb292

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Tom's - Can you stop creating an article every time the has been makes some wild statement or guess? And about his revered developer peers: why can't these developers put the same effort into debugging that they do into cranking out games on a 9 month cycle? Crysis 2 Patch #9? Black Ops patch #10? How about that skilled development shown on FF14 Online?
 

reggieray

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Could have made consoles to be upgradeable and or when a new one comes out it is backwards compatible.
My bad, we already have that, it's called a PC.
 

alidan

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[citation][nom]therabiddeer[/nom]Well, we should be getting the next gen consoles in a couple of years though, right? I mean, sure phones have gone fast in tech, but current consoles are 6 years old now... and hell, smartphones without a contract cost more than a console anyway.[/citation]

iphone costs about 200$ in parts, im betting either console costs more still.

[citation][nom]pocketdrummer[/nom]I doubt it. Even with new tech coming out for phones, I don't think they can get the power that high and keep the power usage low enough to reach that level any time soon. Unless, of course, they start making iPad sized "smartphones".Apart from that, why do we care what John Carmack thinks again?[/citation]

for 1, he made doom, and he is basically a savant when it comes to computer code.
two, if we are just talking about graphics alone without all the background s@%& than cellphones will be about as powerfull as a console in 2 years time, possibly more. from what i am hearing about the psv, its god ps3 quality with uncharted.

[citation][nom]MasterMace[/nom]Therabiddeer: No. Microsoft and Sony have both stated that the 360 and PS3 are only 1/2way thru their life cycles.To be honest, their reasoning is justified considering software takes so long to develop. What companies are going to have to do is make much larger design teams to keep up with the pace of gaming. 4 year development cycles? What is that? Movies are made faster. If it takes longer than a year, it's not going to fly.[/citation]

they say that, however the same was said about ps2, and 6 years into its cycle out came the ps3, and for years after that, at e3, the ps2 was mentioned.

just because a console has a 10 year plan, doesn't mean its an uncontested 10 year plan.
and it wasn't a decision based on games taking time to develop, it was a factor of diminishing returns. we are only currently coming close to where we will see a tech level up, not just in terms of true 1080p, sharper textures, and the like, but in terms of raw, we couldn't fake this kind of tech.

you know the term fake it till you make it? dx9 could do everything that 10 can do, you just have to be creative. only with 11 is there something 9 cant fake, im guessing that it will take untill dx12 before there is a real visual leap, that you cant just say "this is a good looking dxXX game" no, you will have no doubt in your mind, that it was a 12 game.
 

shin0bi272

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Ok so instead of working on beta testing rage hes our yammering about how phones are about to outpace consoles? I hope he has his homework done before he goes to tashi station to buy some power converters cause from what Ive seen of Rage it looks like an upgraded version to Borderlands and thus a long game... will need LOTS of debug and beta testing time. Dont get me wrong I like what ID puts out its just that it seems uninspired these days. Hell I played on an ETQW server with a guy from iD and he wanted to get our feedback on the game sort of thing. This was back during the beginning of the ads in games and I flat out told the guy look if Im gonna put down 45 bucks for a game with 12 maps and only multiplayer I dont wanna see ads for intel, pepsi, terminator the sarah connor chronicles, or whatever... If Im gonna be forced to look at ads (meaning you got paid to put them in your game) then cut me a deal on the price. Then about 30 seconds later he was kicked from our server by a clan member who wanted to join... I bet to this day he thinks it was me. Bah well...
 

Dark Comet

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Why do people think because the consoles are only half way through their life cycle there won't be a new one till that cycle ends. Microsoft can support the Xbox 360 for another 5 years if they want. That doesn't stop them from releasing another console next year and supporting both.

If the PSP vita's in between the PS2 and PS3 maybe its possible that soon we will have phones putting out that kind of graphics, but two years seems too fast imo
 

tommysch

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Why do people keep on reporting what that has-been keep spewing? He is in the farmville market now, he has to sell his BS somehow.

Its like saying that a Toyota Prius will be faster than a BMW M3 in a couple of years... In real life the bigger the size and power envelope the faster. If you can get X speed with a iPad a form factor 5 times its size will stick drag the iPad through the mud at any give point in time.

Tomorrows mobile devices will be aiming at 1980*1080 gaming while PCs will be looking at 3D Virtual reality gaming...
 

Zingam

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Yeah, yeah! Big deal! My handwatch is more powerful the the IBM mainframe released in the year when I was born. Why is Carmack whining? Is he getting old and tired?
 

upgrade_1977

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The difference between ipad, ipod, droid games, are that 99% of them are disposable 1 hour games. Play them for an hour, get bored, move on. All these developers keep on focusing on tablets and phones like they are gonna take over the market, well, they aren't going to. You have to realize that no matter how powerful they get, computers and consoles will always be more powerful, and you have to realize that the only reason people play on there phones so much, are because they are with you everywhere you go, and in the short free time you get when your at work, or waiting somewhere, you can play, so it's more fun then staring out a window, or watching a wall. As far as the games, 99% are sub par, boring. People just don't realize how much potential the systems have. If they release minecraft on the tablets or phones, the way it is now, even though the graphics aren't that great, it would take over the market and be top on the app store, because it's a very complex yet simple game. Most of the games on the app store are focused on very simplistic gameplay.

Rant over..
 

JOSHSKORN

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Well duh, obviously. Look at the rate of change in the features of a cell phone vs a console? New cell phones are released monthly (more or less) and we get new consoles every 5-10 years? Someone is bound to throw in a "Kinect-like" feature into a phone sooner or later. For what reason, I have no clue because I don't quite see the benefit to the end-user. I'm sure one exists though. Otherwise, I'm sure the hardware of a mobile phone will surpass that of a console soon. I'm not expecting a whole lot more out of next-gen consoles than the current-gen. Yes, better graphics and hopefully a feature for cloud gaming, but that's it. Then again, I really don't want cloud gaming on a mobile device with Verizon's new data plans, anyway.
 

rantoc

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I think Mr.Carmack have smoked too much weed or just trying to get attention (like everyone with a new title). Sure he did some great titles back in time but see a phone compete with the consoles is laughable at best, i doubt they even will be able to compete with the today 5-6 years old consoles for years to come and there are new ones comming. The power/thermal budget wont allow the phones to perform anywhere near that in the foreseeable future. Even todays 3d games lacks everything but the basics, low res, no real shader power ect. I would laugh my ass off too see any phone's fps rendering frames with the same detail and resolution. Maby it should be called FPM in that test not FPS!
 

quinton mcleod

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Carmack is right. However, he's just pointing out the obvious. Phones today are a lot more powerful than consoles were over 10 years ago. Sure, your iPad is more powerful than a Super Nintendo or even a Nintendo 64. However, this is how technology works. Over the years, as certain technologies age, their prices are reduced and they are manufactured in smaller sizes. Companies then build smaller devices with these cheaper and smaller components and there ya have it. This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.
 

cookoy

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i liked his distinction of a diversion-type game vs a destination-type game and with which device each is most suited for. i certainly would not like to play a full-blown destination-type game on a smartphone even if it is capable of playing it. just not the same experience as playing it on a console attached to big screen and surround sound.
 
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