How long can DNNA keep bleeding?

[Greg]

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http/www.dm-holdings.com/eng/media/press/2004/20040825.html.

I bet we see another sale or a spinoff

 

[Guest]

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Greg wrote:
> http/www.dm-holdings.com/eng/media/press/2004/20040825.html.
>
> I bet we see another sale or a spinoff

I take the bet and give you 3 to 1.

This is the same old news you keep linking. It's the paper costs of
their fire-sale aquisitions of Rio & Sonic Blue, not an indication of
their financial strength. If you want info, ask a broker.

 

[Greg]

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You are the one who said they were "in the black". I just started watching them
to see.
It is simply not true. RTV and TiVo are both bleeding and there doesn't seem to
be much signs of it turning around.


>I take the bet and give you 3 to 1.
>

What's the bet?
I think the idea that D&M Holdings will spin off/sell RTV in the next 12 months
is a pretty sure thing, assuming they don't just let it die a quiet death.
They have been looking for a "strategic partner" for over a year with no
takers. They can't keep swallowing the 1.3 billion yen "write downs" they took
this spring forever.

 

[Greg]

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BTW this isn't "the same old news". This was a release from last week. It just
looks the same. They are still predicting they will start making money next
quarter and reporting another loss from last quarter.

 

[Guest]

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Greg wrote:

> BTW this isn't "the same old news". This was a release from last week. It just
> looks the same. They are still predicting they will start making money next
> quarter and reporting another loss from last quarter.

This was in the DNNA report months ago.

Like I said. Instead of inventing theories, ask a broker which stock to
buy, Tivo or DNNA.

Did you even read your link? An estimate of lessened quarterly profits
compared to previous estimates before the buyout is hardly "bleeding".

 

[Greg]

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I stopped looling at their "estimates". I look at their actual results.
Since this is the last quarter's results I doubt it was in a report "months
ago". The same results happened "months ago" but this new "bleeding".
Now that cable companies are virtually giving away DVRs how long do you think
this will hold on?

 

[Guest]

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gfretwell@aol.com (Greg) shaped the electrons to say:
>to see.
>It is simply not true. RTV and TiVo are both bleeding and there doesn't seem to
>be much signs of it turning around.

TiVo says profitability by the end of fiscal 2005, which is the end of
January 2006. So far analysts are wary, but don't disagree. While
they have had losses they have been able to meet guidance and
seriously beat the street's estimates for several quarters. So they
keep surprising analysts.

It remains to be seen if they can continue to execute to their plan
and buy their way to a broader market and profitability, which is the
plan. They're looking for 3 million subscribers by the end of fiscal
2004, and they're on pace for it.

>I think the idea that D&M Holdings will spin off/sell RTV in the next 12 months
>is a pretty sure thing, assuming they don't just let it die a quiet death.

I doubt they'll sell it off. DVR technology is a key requirement for
any serious media server in the market now, and going forward. DNNA
has already transferred staff from RTV to Escient, and probably other
members of the family. More likely, as they don't seem to be planning
any HW refresh for RTV, they'll dissolve RTV and merge the technology
into their high end products and drop out of the stand alone DVR
market entirely. With TiVo's rapid growth in that market, plus the
pressure from a growing number of budget DVRs, and the inroads by
cable box DVRs, they're being squeezed. TiVo's agressive marketing
and willingness to spend $50 million to buy users, and the price
pressure of $99 DVRs, doesn't help.

There is more margin at the high end. So DNNA will probably drain RTV
of the intellectual property they have in the DVR market and use it to
produce high end systems with integrated DVR functionality. And
they'll continue to try to license the technology to other vendors,
but they haven't been successful doing so as of yet.

-MZ, RHCE #806199299900541, ex-CISSP #3762
--
<URL:mailto:megazoneatmegazone.org> Gweep, Discordian, Author, Engineer, me.
"A little nonsense now and then, is relished by the wisest men" 508-755-4098
<URL:http/www.megazone.org/> <URL:http/www.eyrie-productions.com/> Eris

 

[Greg]

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> So DNNA will probably drain RTV
>of the intellectual property they have in the DVR market and use it to
>produce high end systems

What is the "intellectual property"?
The hardware is pretty tired these days and the software is certainly not
rocket science.
The only thing TiVo and RTV has is market presence and the cable companies
certainly trump them on that.
The next generation of DVRs will be on a chip or two with the hard drive being
the only expensive part.
It will be bundled with a set top box and cable modem/router. That will be a
cable company. You can't ignore the guy who sells the "pipe" that makes this
thing more than a smart VCR.
I suspect that is the "strategic partner" DNNA is having such a hard time
finding. S/A and the other set top box guys are telling the cable company they
don't need another partner.