News The $25k Tesla hatchback is the only Tesla worth caring about

Jul 6, 2021
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The affordability argument about the 3 is... dull.

The New York Times did an article showing a $38k Model 3 costs roughly the same as a $27k Nissan Altima over 5 years, largely thanks to propulsion costs being lower on the 3. The failure, by and large, is of critical media and math-deficient people unable to do basic napkin math.

People tend to look only at the car's cost amortized monthly, but fail to look at the next-largest monthly bill for a car: fuel. It's SUCH an easy thing to pencil out. If your car costs $300/mo but your electricity only costs you $100/mo, it's still cheaper than a car that costs $250/mo but has a $200/mo gas bill. After that 5-year break-even point, you're saving money hand over fist for every year you own the vehicle.

The average new car in the US sells for close to $40k. Sure, more used cars are sold, but that's also a $22k average.

If you have access to fast charging, nearly every 2-car family in America in the market for a new/used car can find an EV that meets their needs. If you have a garage, you don't even need access to fast charging.

The only thing stopping wide adoption of EVs right now is lack of consumer knowledge, bad media, and poor financial literacy. And Tom's clickbaity article doesn't help this.
 
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Apr 15, 2021
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The Tesla Model 3 has had its day, and only the Tesla hatchback matters now. Here's why.

The $25k Tesla hatchback is the only Tesla worth caring about : Read more
Tom, you seem to have missed the rising sales of the Model Y, which may become the highest selling auto model in the world. Also, by far the Tesla aspect with the highest potential is their FSD. If they make it work it'll revolutionize transportation and it will matter little whether they make a less expensive car, because the vast majority of people will drop their car ownership and use autonomous taxis at 25 cents a mile once it gets to scale. Cheaper than driving your own car.
 
Apr 14, 2021
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The affordability argument about the 3 is... dull.

The New York Times did an article showing a $38k Model 3 costs roughly the same as a $27k Nissan Altima over 5 years, largely thanks to propulsion costs being lower on the 3. The failure, by and large, is of critical media and math-deficient people unable to do basic napkin math.

People tend to look only at the car's cost amortized monthly, but fail to look at the next-largest monthly bill for a car: fuel. It's SUCH an easy thing to pencil out. If your car costs $300/mo but your electricity only costs you $100/mo, it's still cheaper than a car that costs $250/mo but has a $200/mo gas bill. After that 5-year break-even point, you're saving money hand over fist for every year you own the vehicle.

The average new car in the US sells for close to $40k. Sure, more used cars are sold, but that's also a $22k average.

If you have access to fast charging, nearly every 2-car family in America in the market for a new/used car can find an EV that meets their needs. If you have a garage, you don't even need access to fast charging.

The only thing stopping wide adoption of EVs right now is lack of consumer knowledge, bad media, and poor financial literacy. And Tom's clickbaity article doesn't help this.
Well either way you look at it, it still makes the Hatchback an incredibly important car.

The $25k price tag will appeal to those people who don't look beyond the initial purchase price, while the fact it's an electric Tesla means that the long term cost of running it will be less than an equivalent-priced car with an ICE
 
Apr 14, 2021
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Tom, you seem to have missed the rising sales of the Model Y, which may become the highest selling auto model in the world. Also, by far the Tesla aspect with the highest potential is their FSD. If they make it work it'll revolutionize transportation and it will matter little whether they make a less expensive car, because the vast majority of people will drop their car ownership and use autonomous taxis at 25 cents a mile once it gets to scale. Cheaper than driving your own car.
Full autonomy is still a way off, and even Elon Musk has just admitted that achieving it is significantly harder than he thought.

Then we have to consider the legislative response, and the rollout of services and infrastructure to support it — both of which are pretty slow-moving machines. After all there are still places that don't have Uber, even so many years after the company got popular.

Plus people as a whole are pretty resistant to change, and adoption of autonomous driving among the general public is likely to be pretty slow. Even in the best case scenario where this doesn't happen, and people drop their cars immediately, driving yourself around is going to be the norm for quite some time. And more affordable electric cars will still be in demand
 
Apr 15, 2021
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Full autonomy is still a way off, and even Elon Musk has just admitted that achieving it is significantly harder than he thought.

Then we have to consider the legislative response, and the rollout of services and infrastructure to support it — both of which are pretty slow-moving machines. After all there are still places that don't have Uber, even so many years after the company got popular.

Plus people as a whole are pretty resistant to change, and adoption of autonomous driving among the general public is likely to be pretty slow. Even in the best case scenario where this doesn't happen, and people drop their cars immediately, driving yourself around is going to be the norm for quite some time. And more affordable electric cars will still be in demand
We differ on the timing of FSD, which is fine, but comparing autonomous taxis to Uber is quite wrong, because of the low cost, under 25 cents a mile within a few years of beginning. "Show me the money". THAT will "drive" fast adoption. And what services and infrastructure? Ridesharing software, which is trivial, and the infrastructure is the same chargers as for electric car adoption. If FSD successful, the statistics will be overwhelmingly convincing for the majority of people. You should read "Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030". Very detailed, although they were too optimistic about the beginning.
IF (yes I agree there are still questions) FSD successful, I agree with this report, that within 10 years the vast majority of miles driven will be autonomous. I don't think the report is a free download anymore, but you can read synopses on various sites.
 
Jul 7, 2021
1
0
10
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The affordability argument about the 3 is... dull.

The New York Times did an article showing a $38k Model 3 costs roughly the same as a $27k Nissan Altima over 5 years, largely thanks to propulsion costs being lower on the 3. The failure, by and large, is of critical media and math-deficient people unable to do basic napkin math.

People tend to look only at the car's cost amortized monthly, but fail to look at the next-largest monthly bill for a car: fuel. It's SUCH an easy thing to pencil out. If your car costs $300/mo but your electricity only costs you $100/mo, it's still cheaper than a car that costs $250/mo but has a $200/mo gas bill. After that 5-year break-even point, you're saving money hand over fist for every year you own the vehicle.

The average new car in the US sells for close to $40k. Sure, more used cars are sold, but that's also a $22k average.

If you have access to fast charging, nearly every 2-car family in America in the market for a new/used car can find an EV that meets their needs. If you have a garage, you don't even need access to fast charging.

The only thing stopping wide adoption of EVs right now is lack of consumer knowledge, bad media, and poor financial literacy. And Tom's clickbaity article doesn't help this.
If you are saving $300+$100 vs $250+200 = a delta of $50. $38k-$27= $11k.

So my napkin says your break even point is 220 months for fuel savings. 18 years! Yeah I get that some people try to throw in $100 oil changes 4 times a year , transmission flushes (though transmissions are now sealed for life), annual coolant flushes, and other inflated maintenance numbers to support their "potential EV savings" numbers. But EV's don't really save that much. I've owned 5 EV's to date and like them for what they are, but the savings numbers are exaggerated.
 
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