Forrester Explains The Post-PC Era

[snoogins]

I don't see PCs disappearing, however, I do see them continue to get smaller.

Most people now can build a pretty nice machine on mATX (except those few extreme people - who will be the only ones buying bigger systems in the future), and you can even build a semi-decent machine on mini-itx.

Not too far from now you will still have a PC, it will just be wii-sized, and able to power all the games you want.

At least thats what I expect.

 

[Maximus_Delta]

@ dalauder, snoogins

Look at graphics cards, we are more than 10 years on from 3d gaming and you dont see them shrinking down. By your logic the latest graphics cards should be just 3-4 inches long with a tiny 20mm fan. In 20 years time, gaming in fully interactive 3d worlds with practically real AI you will need a decent sized box drawing some serious current. Who knows what is around the corner in next gen applications.

 

[chaos133]

As long as they make standards like ATX, Micro ATX for these even smaller form factors so I could buy each part to build my own Laptop one day I would be happy.

 

[marraco]

What we need are phones and tablets capable of running applications on our powerful desktops PCs. Thew should communicate wirelessly, so we can wander on the house and using all the power of the desktop PC.

 

[dalta centauri]

[citation][nom]Maximus_Delta[/nom]@ dalauder, snooginsLook at graphics cards, we are more than 10 years on from 3d gaming and you dont see them shrinking down. By your logic the latest graphics cards should be just 3-4 inches long with a tiny 20mm fan. In 20 years time, gaming in fully interactive 3d worlds with practically real AI you will need a decent sized box drawing some serious current. Who knows what is around the corner in next gen applications.[/citation]
Actually, lower and mid end are shrinking in both size, temps, and heating. The higher end models are the result of large sizes, but graphic cards are still capable of beefing performance while getting better temps and wattage requirements from their earlier generation.

Still though, Desktops are more useful towards developers (Even if their not targeting PCs) and rendering. I'm sure Apple won't get rid of their desktop series any time soon let alone the next 5 years, desktops have more capabilities since they allow for more space. Gaming on the PC will more than likely die down again after the next gen consoles, which will then die down to the mobile market (If Microsoft and Sony bring us a powerful mobile console it will be sooner.)

 

[virtualban]

[citation][nom]killerclick[/nom]I'm sure they'll be able to fit awesome processing power into cellphones eventually but don't make me use those tiny displays. I'll be happy to junk my desktop once my smartphone can interface with three 24" screens, a keyboard, a mouse and 5.1 speakers.[/citation]
[citation][nom]marraco[/nom]What we need are phones and tablets capable of running applications on our powerful desktops PCs. Thew should communicate wirelessly, so we can wander on the house and using all the power of the desktop PC.[/citation]


What we need is the power of whatever device, handheld or rack mounted, to be displayed at very high resolutions in a way to get a big percentage of our field of vision. Head mounted display but light and compact to be mistaken for glasses, ti can be done with proper lenses and mirrors. The projection quality is not right at the moment, but it will be. Sound projected into ears with current tech. Maybe in the not so distant future projected directly into the retina will be cheaper to produce. If one puts the computing power of a hand held device, gets x giga/terraflops of calculative power, but can switch to xx the power by connecting to the home maniframe too for some serious stuff.

 

[tonitelaoag]

the reason why i need more powerful pc in terms of processor and video card is because games in lower resolution is ugly and sometimes does not start due to below minimum specs, if only new OS does not require minimum specs to install and run it smoothly and can run on old system then will not get left behind with our rigs, unfortunately, new OS and games and apps most of the time needs powerful machine to start and run smoothly, that is why the never ending cycle of upgrades on pc side. that elienate us from newer and simple to use tablets with its hordes of apps built-in and for sale online.for me tablets are a novelty item, that when it runs out of its appeal, individual go back to old and tried and tested desktop pc or powerful laptop

 

[rantoc]

I think the PC Gaming will evolve with the tech like it always has.

Today PC gaming is not dead like some claim, in fact it does well. Some console developers/retailers try to claim it’s dying in order to usher the uninformed to the consoles. One of the main reasons the pc sales can look weak is that the online sale numbers rarely are included in the sales reports. Considering how huge steam are in the total pc game sales and how they constantly eat market shares from the retailers - Their running scared. It’s the natural evolution of their aging business (much like the retail music industry).

They understandably don't want their companies to fade into oblivion, that’s why they turn to the consoles and try to prevent new customers to turn to the pc.

It doesn’t require a genius to see through their corporate bullshit...

 

[azetec]

There's no Post-PC era, only Stone Age and PC Age

 

[dark_lord69]

[citation][nom]may1[/nom]Desktops will always exist, in the business and gaming industries. End.[/citation]
Thank you...
And honestly I think this guy spent way to much time on a desktop before he bought a iPad and now feels that well i can get on the internet with this thing all computers will go away but aperently he hasn't seen what high end desktop hardware can do and he doesn't do any tasks that require real power.

I'll believe it when I see Crysis running at 60 fps in HD on a cell phone or tablet without using cloud gaming. Maybe in 5 or 6 years that might be possible but by then some other game will have graphics that make Crysis look like Quake 1 and you will still need a very high end graphics card. Even if 100% of gaming ends up in the cloud and you can use any crappy device to play a game, you will still need a quality CPU for other demanding tasks.

This guy is simply refering to browsing the internet and checking e-mail for which any $200 acient pentium 4 could do just fine (or any crappy phone/tablet). But try using that same computer to convert a video from mpeg to divx it could take days for example... There are many other tasks that require a high end PC.

For the average user... yes.
For my mom... yes
For my grandma... yes
(All they do is check websites and thier e-mail.)
But even my sister does things on a computer that require some excellent hardware.

 

[mdillenbeck]

[citation][nom]MeanSquare[/nom] . . . I prefer ubiquitous computing (although it's harder to say) . . . [/citation]
How about passive computing or consumption computing? I see the trend in creating devices that utilize little input from the user to generate an experience closer to watching TV. Tabs with Apps are quick-touch don't-think interactions like a remote control when channel surfing.

Also, I think people could care less if automation took over. People don't want to set or adjust their thermostat, especially if the house is smart enough to observe a persons activity cycle and automatically adjust it (with human ability to override, or at least a fake button like "scan activity now" which would be akin to the "close door" button in an elevator). People don't care about their budgets and finances if a system does it in the background, gives them the power to get summary reports, and alerts them in a tiny manner.

In other words, people want to use computers replace their thinking so they can do less work. Hence, passive or consumption computing.

 

[dread_cthulhu]

Hmm.. The trend I'm seeing personally is that the desktop market is shrinking for the average users, who can generally get by with a laptop or tablet, and could probably easily get by with a Cloud OS, but as far as the power users, and gamers, and enthusiasts, and people who use computers daily to make a living, desktops are still the way to go. There's something to be said for a system that only requires a minimum of tech knowledge to upgrade or replace parts in. As long as industry standard remain out there, then desktops will never die, and laptops, phones, and tablets will keep those of us with advanced skills in jobs. (Well, those and the virus writers!)

We'll all just need to get eye implants to help us see the teeny-tiny screws on these things!

 

[f-14]

computing is going mobile. do you see people hauling grand father clocks and printing presses around on their wrists? computers are getting smaller and lighter, i expect keyboards and mice to be gone within 20 years. in 10 years i can see tower pc's pretty much gone for most users except for die hard users who demand the utmost in performance as the freedom of mobile computing and devices are now getting to the point where the price of laptops and other mobile devices are at acceptable means for the freedom and utility provided.
we have arrived at the transition point for the average and casual users at this time and given the trend it will be compete in 10 years or sooner.
this b.s. about a post pc era is just the crack pipe talking, the pc of the future will be the size of your wrist watch, hopefully in less time then it took the clocks to get there. right now everything being developed is to get us one step closer to that. getting it to run on a 1.25 volt watch battery is the challenge being faced at this moment.

 

[quickmana]

As long as I have all th performance of my gaming rig shrunk down to my phone at the same price I'm sold! This isn't going to happen for a long time. I would still like a "workstation" (monitor, keyboard, mouse) to dock with.

 

[upgrade_1977]

I don't think the pc will ever die. I think that one day tablets will work alongside the pc in a cloud type environment. So you will be able to use a tablet for day to day uses, and anything that requires extra power will (gaming, scientific purposes, ect) will tap the computing power from a pc through the internet at your home, or servers that you rent, like a remote deskop almost, except you won't notice the change, it will just happen automatically. IMO clouds will always be hybrid systems, so I think pc's will always have a place. Just in the future they will be 1000 times more powerful than today. But we will always need more and more computing power. I see the pc as the central nervous system of our homes, and tablets are extentions of that system. I realize that in 20 years tablets will be way more powerful then the best desktops of today, but the applications will also require vast's amount of computing power. Video games will be like the matrix where you will wirelessly plug in with your wireless brain implant, and it will run off your home pc super computer holodeck style. And people will probably be building battle bots by then, and doing battle simulations on networks in which the more powerful systems will have advantages over weaker systems. The thing most people forget is that applications grow in requirements as technology gets better. So while you will be able to do a lot more on tablets in the future, there will always be apps that will require more and more computing power, and anyone who has the extra computing power will have an advantage when it comes to doing computing applications. Computing power = more ability = time saved.

Also, I think AI will require vast's amount of computing power, and since most people in the future will have robots, the more powerful your pc, the more the AI can tap into. One day we will all have "watson" type computers.

 

[kkiddu]

I think we should stop trying to predict what the future's gonna be. None of the science-fiction movies before the 1990s have any mention of computer or internet or a similar concept.

2015 is not far. Compare Back To The Future 2015 to the real 2015. Flying cars that are actually used by most people - nope. Electronic clothes - nope. Weather control - not significant. But I could list far more things that the movie people couldn't imagine, but exist now. Hell, they didn't even dare to dream of a flatscreen CRT, forget about LCDs and paper AMOLEDs.

Future is a mystery. Merely because it depends on things as unpredictable as humans and simply lots of variables. Let's not waste our time trying to figure it out. We can't. Period.

 

[GNCD]

[citation][nom]_Cubase_[/nom]I like to think of this whole situation as the technology being similar to women: It may be cool to have a couple of sleek, pretty looking and simple ones with you on the side when you're out and about, but at the end of the day you always come home to the real deal... albeit, a bigger and sturdier one.[/citation]


+ 100 to you sir...good one

 

[demonhorde665]

[citation][nom]molo9000[/nom]Conventional desktop PCs will eventually die out as consumer products and only be used by professionals and hobbyists. The vast majority of consumers don't need a super computer. The normal user only uses a computer for reading email and news, reading and writing documents, watching youtube videos (which he's going to do with his TV in 5 years), managing digital photos and maybe cutting home videos (which tablets are already capable off).What's he going to buy a PC for if his TV and a 600gram 12-14" tablet can do that for him better than any PC in 5-10years?PC gaming is going to die just the same. What keeps PC gaming alive are not enthusiast who build 1-2grand gaming PCs. It's people who have a desktop PCs anyway and would like to play some games on them.Console gaming (or maybe set-top-box gaming or whatever - it's unlikely that the gaming consoles will survive as single-purpose devices) is going to take over once nobody needs desktop PCs anymore.[/citation]

what sort of crack are you smoking ???

 

[dimar]

Post-PC? When we figure out how to grow or develop organics to process information. We can call this personal-brain? Or some sort of implant / genetic manipulation / evolution to re-programing the dreaming part of a brain to act like a personal screen for the mind. One way where we can see both the screen and the real world, and the other way is where we only see the screen world. Telepathy for wireless comminucation sounds great. Just image what malware will be then

 

[Maximus_Delta]

@ upgrade_1977 - couldn't agree more, apps will continue to evolve. The cutting edge apps of the future will still have some of us needing more (we don't all want our computing dumbed down to idiot proof levels). There is also basic physical constraints on how minaturized something can be. I don't ever see the machine of the future being something that can run off a 5v battery the size of wrist watching yet plugging into some kind of enormous 3D holo deck style projector setup. And imagine the power craze when we get true AI where the faster the computer is the 'smarter' your personal "Watson" is.