I guess bob didn't want us to see this...

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jeremy

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You did not answer the question about how customers are going to get
these 5th gen 8VSB recievers to make all this work, in fact you
diverted to USDTV like services which have no future as the failure of
USDTV has shown. For you concept to even be considered as plausable
this question you would need a solid answer to this question and you
don't have one.


When I mentioned that customers would have to pick cable or local,
you've said they wouldn't pick they would simply drop cable (which of
course would be picking). You suggest the local networks are going to
create 400 something new channels in the next four-five years (is that
your time frame, I don't think you've given one, but you're implying
near future best I can tell), not going to happen.... Look at how long
it's taken the cable companies to get it right (and I'm not saying they
have it 100% right), but out of 350+ channels I have I have a select
10-15 that are watched in my household regularly, my mother in law has
a different set of 10-15, my brother yet another set. You see we don't
need 350 channels, but it's taken cable a long time to do it right.
Where is their funding going to come from to create an additonal 350
channels? Why is advertiser X going to pay the OTA networks new
counterpart to ESPN (which according to you will be a new subscription
based service) for advertising when ESPN has been proven for a long
time. If the networks charge for these new channels that you envision
THEY are starting at ground zero, they have to prove themselfs... They
will fail.

In order to provider 300+ stations the cable/sat companies "share"
networks (CNN, ESPN, A&E, etc...), I asume by charging one another
broadcasting rihgts to the networks they own. If a customer selects
satellite or cable, for the most part they are getting the same choice
of networks... To assume local OTA can just magicly create new
counterparts to all these statons, have them compete and win is
irrational. Explain exactly how they could do this? Don't jump around
the question as you have the 8VSB.


>Why should the broadcasters let cable carry the best content that they
>own and which they deliver free OTA? Why give your competitor the
means
>to better you when you can keep it too yourselves and capture back
>customers you have lost over the years to cable?

It only makes sense if the OTA networks charge, otherwise they haven't
lost anything when their content is broadcast on cable. How have they
lost? They only lose if the cable company is collecting a fee they
could be collecting themselfs.. then again, that's not FREE
television. Regardless of how you position this, your stance is
anti-Free High Defintion OTA programming. Which is bad for the
industry, why should customers have to pay more for High Defintion
content... Your thoughts are more along the lines of why shouldn't they
have to pay...


>No sense. If broadcasters are charging a fee for most of their content
>but not the one free SD program then they are competing with cable and
>offering a less expensive package.

I never disagreed with that, if they are charging any fee then they are
most definately competing... but if they charge a fee they still must
incure the cost of becoming a services company... From a customer
support department to a accouting office to contracting maintence
techs.. There is a huge cost their that you ignore.. and to really
compete they would have to provide all the services of at least a
satellite provider.


> They CAN'T by law charge for the free
>SD program per channel but cable DOES charge for that free channel
now.
>OTA receivers will be given to OTA customers for free by broadcasters
if
>they sign up as subscribers just like cable.

All high level details... explain to me how they will get these 8VSB
5th gen tunners into homes, explain how they will magicly create these
300+ channels, explain how they are going to steal advertising and
subscribers from cable. In your mind the pricing is everything, You
position your ideas as visionary, but they aren't. They are old school
thinking. By integrating phone, high speed internet and subscription
televison services

>There will be a flood of wireless ventures that will compete with
cable
>on the broadband front. Cable is big and fat and has been protected
for
>years by having no competition behind their exclusive franchises.
There

If you see a "flood" on the horizon, I challenge you to name five right
now. Broadband cable has had competion for years ISDN lines were
available long before, and DSL is available now (often for cheaper I
might add), yet still DSL falls behind, because it's not consist, it's
not realable. In Houston TimeWarner is already setting up wireless
access points around the city for their subscribers, cable companies
have the infrastructure and to counter these start ups and again they
can combine services and provide a discount.

-Jeremy
 
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jeremy@pdq.net wrote:

> See in-line:
>
> Bob Miller wrote:
>
>
>>They are not going to be watching just there local OTA stations OTA. They will be watching plenty of cable channels OTA. OTA is going to compete with cable and satellite. Sinclair is just tickling you with a small sample of what is to come.
>>
> >
> If you're refering to services such as USDTV, well USDTV has been around for a year or so now and I'm not seeing sings of growth. Where's the public interest. It's not there yet.

USDTV does not have MPEG4 or a receiver that is viable yet. I thought
they would fail by now. I thought they were crazy. They offer 11 or 12
channels and not the greatest selection even in those 12. They have all
the problems of 8-VSB so they have to pick cities like Las Vegas, Salt
Lake City and Albuquerque all cities with mountains around them, few
trees and in bowls.

However with MPEG4 they can offer more channels now and up to 16 SD
channels digital in a single analog SD channel. With 5th gen receivers
they can offer their service everywhere including such as NYC. Never
would have tried that before 5th gen.
>
>
>>Understand that any market in the US has 30+ digital stations possible and each of those stations can deliver 16 SD channels when MPEG4 hits its full stride in two or three years. 30 times 16 sounds like 480 SD channels to me and with a PVR in the receiver you can multiply that by some other factor.
>
>
> So for their investment in DTV infrastructure the OTA networks have gained more channel bandwidth. You imply over MPEG-2 they can do 16 SD
> channels at present, but how many HD channels can they deliver? Part of your vision for this seems to require the scaling back of HD content in
> favor of SD content, which I certainly hope doesn't happen.

No 16 SD channels with MPEG4 in two to three years, about 11-12 now with
MPEG4 as apposed to a maximum of 8 now with MPEG2 if you have the most
expensive equipment.

>
>
>>Cable and satellite are in big do do IMO once we HAVE a digital transition. Ever think that this may be why we haven't had one yet????
>
> I don't see the threat to cable/sat providers? OTA networks are in the advertising and broadcasting business, you underestimate the services
> infrastructure (enormous cost) they would have to build out to lease equipment, perform maintence, set up billing department) at the very
> least this would be a huge risk for them. What's more likely would be for them to partner with companies such as USDTV and again, I'm not
> seeing a success story with USDTV. To some degree OTA networks need cable providers, to a lesser degree the opposite can be said.

With MPEG4 and 5th gen receivers broadcasters do NOT need cable and
satellite. Some of them including Sinclair are figuring this out. Note
that Sinclair is getting pretty aggressive with cable and HDTV. Expect
more. They are natural competitors with two different modes of delivery.
They should be competing not using the government like broadcasters are
to USE the competitors distribution network via must carry.
>
> I see the DTV transition as being something we're in the middle of. Look at how many HD ready sets are being sold today vs a year ago. Look
> at the price drops, look at the number of HD channels bein broadcast today vs a year ago, if you can't see progress being made towards the
> "transition" they are you selectively ignoring it.

There is NO transition for OTA. What you are talking about is cable and
satellite. All those people buying HD sets, how many to watch DVDs? how
many will not even hook up to any HD source? Very few will hook up to
OTA. They will wait till they get a free HD receiver from their cable or
satellite company. The US OTA spectrum was used by fewer people last
year than the year before and that has been true for the last 40 years.
It is down to less than 10% IMO.>
>
>
>>COFDM receivers cost as little as $37 while the cheapest 8-VSB is
>
> $200...
>
> Please stop preaching about COFDM, hopefully by now you realize it's a
> lost effort (regardless of if you are right or wrong).

COFDM and now maybe the Chinese modulation DMB-T are NOT lost efforts. I
expect a resurgence in interest regarding dropping 8-VSB in the next
year. Here is a letter from a top DoD video Engineer. The DoD was always
a strong proponent of DVB-T COFDM.

"A month or so ago I received an interesting briefing from a company
that wanted to use ATSC / 8VSB to deliver data to fire departments and other
first responders. They had no clue about who they were briefing (my
history, etc.), other than my current title. Their business plan was for
the fire engine to get all the way to the site of the fire where they
would stop then they would be able to receive data about where the fire
was. I
gently pointed out to them that once the fire department got to the
fire, they kind of knew where the fire was and would not wait around the
fire
engine for data to arrive - firemen tend to run into the fire first
thing when they get there. The point to the story is, as thick as these
folks
were, even they knew they could not receive 8VSB data while the truck
was moving (they must have tested their system prior to deployment - what a
concept).

To quote a lawyer from my swimming with sharks experience a few years
back, ATSC is great, it works 75% of the time for fixed locations. To
which my
boss's boss responded, we tend to like communications channels to work
somewhere in the high 90s.

I am now also enjoying HDTV via my DirecTV HDTV receiver, which also has
an integral OTA ATSC decoder. Lots of signal strength for my Fox channel
(signal bars full strength), but I can not watch it at all - the picture
breaks up so often that it makes any sports program (Redskins football,
etc.) too painful to watch (pain on multiple levels), so I have to watch
Fox via SDTV satellite, no OTA HDTV for me. I know why the reception is so
bad - a one story hill behind my house causes a large standing
reflection, which we noted long ago when my house was one of the ATSC DC
test sites.
8VSB does not work for me, never has, never will. I also can not
receive the local digital UPN station. The signal strength swings from
0 to 80+
every couple of seconds, which never gives the decoder a chance to lock
up and display a signal. So back to DirecTV for UPN at my house, no
HDTV Star
Trek Enterprise for me.

The COFDM proponents lost the political fight several years back, but
they were still right - 8VSB was a poor choice for our nation. Isn't it a
wonderful irony that 8VSB was added to the ATSC specification as a bone
to the last US TV manufacturer, which was subsequently sold to a foreign
company who now owns the patents on 8VSB. Simply lovely.

It was cool to read Voom is going to add hundreds of channels of
satellite based HDTV. It is cool to get local traffic and weather on my
XM satellite
radio now, and they even have emergency channel provisions now in case
things go stupid. Maybe the most cynical people I heard during the
8VSB/COFDM wars were right all along - the choice of 8VSB was a method
to kill over the air TV so everyone would move to cable and satellite
then the
OTA spectrum would be sold off once and for all. If all of the HDTV is
over satellite, and now the last uses for local service (local traffic,
weather, and emergency broadcasts) are replaced by satellite service,
why would we need local OTA digital service anymore? Inquiring minds
want to
know.

To my old friends on this list, hello, I've been away for awhile, busy
fighting a couple of wars recently. But my duties are changing soon, and I
am thinking about getting back into the digital Motion Imagery game.
Watch this space."


>
 
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wmhjr wrote:

> You're nuts.
>
> Way too much of the population just can't reliably get either 8-VSB or COFDM content due to geographic constraints. That doesn't even begin
> to consider the factor of range and signal variables particularly with COFDM.

Range? The supposed power advantage of 8-VSB is being definitely put to
rest by Chinese test ongoing across China. COFDM with its latest
algorithms (COFDM is constantly improving to) now has a 2.5 db advantage
or almost 100% over 8-VSB. I will post more specific results as I get them.

As to signal variables I don't know what you are talking about. The
worst "geographical constraints" are places like New York City and this
video show COFDM working all over that city Mobile from ONE 100 Watt
amplifier where 8-VSB is not receivable with special antennas and
800,000 Watts.

www.viacel.com/bob.wmv


I actually agree with some of your sentiments, but let's get a healthy
dose of reality. For example, your proposed solution would be
> death to my area. To be clear - I will never, ever, be able to reliably get OTA content that will ever under any circumstances compare
> to cable or sat. Period.

Where do you live? Our solution covers the entire US with a strong even
signal at a far far higher power level than satellite and far more
ubiquitous than current OTA. And with content that WILL compare
favorably with cable and satellite and at less cost.
>
> I can respect the tenets of what you believe in, but can't accept the gross misrepresentation of reality. Sorry.

Your reality not mine.
>
> Additionally, you completely fail to consider the effects of converged networking. That alone kills your premise deader than the proverbial doorknob.
>
We fancy ourselves part of the converged networks of the future. An
adjunct not a dinosaur. We consider our place in the converged networks
of the future all the time as I have mentioned here often.\

Bob Miller
 
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jeremy@pdq.net wrote:

> Bob Miller wrote:
>
>
>>With MPEG4 and 5th gen receivers broadcasters do NOT need cable and
>>satellite. Some of them including Sinclair are figuring this out.
>
>
> But where are these 5th generation tuners? I know LG has one that I
> believe is exclusive to some of their 2005 model HDTVs. Your case is
> basicly that 5th generation tuners pave the way for Sinclair and other
> broadcasters to break free from cable, but why? and how?

Cable makes money off of the programming that broadcasters deliver.
Broadcasters would like to make some or all of that income especially
when it comes to HD. Why shouldn't they. How? By delivering the content
using their OTA spectrum instead of allowing cable to deliver it.
>
> 4th generation tuners are still $200 and People who are just now buying
> sets have more options (the 8VSB integrated sets are finally starting
> to become at least as common of HD Ready sets, but most of these are
> 4th gen tuners from best I can tell.
>
> So let's say three years from now all HDTV sets sold include 5th gen
> 8VSB tuners and let's even say that external 8VSB tuners will have
> dropped to around $40 by then and let's take it a step further and say
> that broadcasters have begun offering 16 channels OTA each by that
> time. Explain how exactly the OTA broadcasters are going to compete
> with cable? The only way they could compete is if they had
> subscribers. If they charged a monthly fee then free OTA goes away
> entirely (bad), but if they do that then they become a services company
> and have to build out the infrastructure to handle all of this.

They have the infrastructure in place to broadcast. They need receivers
with conditional access and encryption. No problem, if cable can deliver
these receivers broadcasters can. USDTV is doing this now. The
broadcasters have a big advantage over cable companies. No cables or
maintenance thereof. They sell their programming and other content via a
subscription service.

Free OTA does not go away. Each channel is still required to deliver ONE
free program of SD quality, same as today. Broadcasters just take
advantage of the fact that with digital they can deliver 15 more
programs with each channel and they can charge for it. The more exotic
idea is that they would NOT do this. You ask why and how and I say how
could you stop them and why not.

You are locked into status quo thinking and it seems obvious to me as it
will be obvious to everyone after they do it that it is very obvious.

Cable only exists because in the beginning OTA didn't work well. 8-VSB
carried on in this tradition. IT DOESN'T work very well. COFDM was
AVOIDED specifically because it worked TOO well. But with 5th gen
receivers 8-VSB can now work WELL ENOUGH. But funny thing, where are the
5th gen receivers?

You ask where are the 5th gen receivers? I answer why did they foist
8-VSB on us in the first place? Why did they have fraudulent test to
discredit COFDM? Why did it take 5 years to get a decent receiver for
8-VSB when they said they had one in 1999 that worked mobile? Why did it
take 5 years when in early 2001 they said they would do it in six
months? And yes now that they have 5th gen receivers that work, WHERE
ARE THEY?

How dense do they think we are? Pretty dense!! And they are being proved
right.

Big business is getting very arrogant in its disregard for the
intelligence of the electorate. It is getting more blatant in its use of
our Congress to steal from us. When do we wake up?

5th gen receivers will only appear in integrated sets because this is
not about getting the transition done it is about making the most money
possible from each sale and delaying the transition as long as possible.

Other wise they would have inexpensive receivers that work with analog
sets by now. Something they also promised in the misty dim past of 2001.


Bob Miller

> They would also piss off all of the public, because they would have elimate
> FREE OTA TV all togeather -and- they would be forcing the US public to
> pick betweeen NBC, CBS, ABC, FOX, etc.. and the cable stations.

No not pick drop. Drop cable because you can receive NBC, ABC, CBS and
FOX free with an OTA receiver and you can receive 475 other channels by
subscription OTA. Why should the public be mad? With PVR who needs more
than 475 channels with the rest free? They will be paying substantially
less than they do now for cable and will NOT be paying cable to receive
FREE OTA channels like they are now.


> That makes no sense what so ever... it doesn't make good business sense. If
> they were competitors the idea thing to do would be to charge one other
> to carry the networks they own. If I understand correctly this is what
> happens now with cable/sat companies.

Why should the broadcasters let cable carry the best content that they
own and which they deliver free OTA? Why give your competitor the means
to better you when you can keep it too yourselves and capture back
customers you have lost over the years to cable? What you say makes no
sense.


>
> If all of this content is offered for FREE OTA then again, they are not
> competing with cable, everyone would just have both. Some people may
> opt to leave their cable providers, but if the networks were wise they
> would offer their channels to any subscription based carrier they could
> find as it will widen their audience (it will always widen their
> audience until 8VSB tuners are free, because not everyone will have
> one), again if the OTA networks aren't charging a subscription FEE they
> are not competing with sat or cable. You could argue they are for
> advertising dollars, but the local networks have had them beat their
> for years.

No sense. If broadcasters are charging a fee for most of their content
but not the one free SD program then they are competing with cable and
offering a less expensive package. They CAN'T by law charge for the free
SD program per channel but cable DOES charge for that free channel now.
OTA receivers will be given to OTA customers for free by broadcasters if
they sign up as subscribers just like cable.
>
> Cable companies are already building strategy against something like
> this. Time Warner offers digital phone (VoIP), digital cable and high
> speed internet for one flat monthly fee (discounted slightly to
> subscribers of all three services). In addition to High Definition DVR
> they have extended their on demand content to include about 100 free on
> demand programs each month. They have also recently added High
> Definiton on demand movies.... If OTA networks wanted to charge for
> service and compete the only way they will be able to is to appeal to
> the bottom end of the market.

There will be a flood of wireless ventures that will compete with cable
on the broadband front. Cable is big and fat and has been protected for
years by having no competition behind their exclusive franchises. There
will be a flood of WiLan and 60 GHz and 70 and 80 GHZ radios used by
ISP's and even individuals that will bypass cable companies with NO need
for franchises. They will offer all the things that cable offers and
will also be the real NEW competition for broadcasters. This is why
broadcasters should have demanded COFDM.

In the future, out five years, broadcasters will like cable and
satellite come under stiff competition from wireless broadband. This
will be really wild. The one area left for broadcasters will be mobile
and portable broadcasting but 8-VSB can't handle it. It is then that the
new age broadcaster, Qualcomm and Crown Castle and maybe Sirius and XM
will win out.

In the end there are only mobile broadcasters mobile wireless broadband
and wireless broadband providers. If broadcasters and cable companies
can morph into those areas they may survive but if history serves they
won't morph and they won't survive.

Has anyone noticed that cable companies are among the most leveraged
companies still in existence. A little breeze will do them in.

Bob Miller
>
> I'd love to hear your response.
>
 
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jeremy@pdq.net wrote:

> You did not answer the question about how customers are going to get
> these 5th gen 8VSB recievers to make all this work, in fact you
> diverted to USDTV like services which have no future as the failure of
> USDTV has shown. For you concept to even be considered as plausable
> this question you would need a solid answer to this question and you
> don't have one.

I see no failure of USDTV. I see a company waiting for their MPEG4 5th
gen receivers before proceeding. Customers will get their receivers
just as they do now with USDTV, go to WalMart and pick it up. With USDTV
they cost $19.95.

They seem to think that ATI has a better 5th gen chip than LG. We will
have to wait and see.
>
>
> When I mentioned that customers would have to pick cable or local,
> you've said they wouldn't pick they would simply drop cable (which of
> course would be picking). You suggest the local networks are going to
> create 400 something new channels in the next four-five years (is that
> your time frame, I don't think you've given one, but you're implying
> near future best I can tell), not going to happen.... Look at how long
> it's taken the cable companies to get it right (and I'm not saying they
> have it 100% right), but out of 350+ channels I have I have a select
> 10-15 that are watched in my household regularly, my mother in law has
> a different set of 10-15, my brother yet another set. You see we don't
> need 350 channels, but it's taken cable a long time to do it right.
> Where is their funding going to come from to create an additonal 350
> channels? Why is advertiser X going to pay the OTA networks new
> counterpart to ESPN (which according to you will be a new subscription
> based service) for advertising when ESPN has been proven for a long
> time. If the networks charge for these new channels that you envision
> THEY are starting at ground zero, they have to prove themselfs... They
> will fail.


>
> In order to provider 300+ stations the cable/sat companies "share"
> networks (CNN, ESPN, A&E, etc...), I asume by charging one another
> broadcasting rihgts to the networks they own. If a customer selects
> satellite or cable, for the most part they are getting the same choice
> of networks... To assume local OTA can just magicly create new
> counterparts to all these statons, have them compete and win is
> irrational. Explain exactly how they could do this? Don't jump around
> the question as you have the 8VSB.

I think the broadcaster will carry the current ESPN. Why would they have
to create a duplicate of anything? They just carry the best content
currently available. Same cost per sub as cable pays but with one
quarter the maintenance cost. Cable and satellite and OTA all carrying
the same content only OTA has a lower price and no charge for local
channels. OTA is just another and better way of delivering content but
with the FCC dictating that one program per channel must be free.

If I have jumped around any question relating to 8-VSB would you please
tell me which one it was.
>
>
>
>>Why should the broadcasters let cable carry the best content that they
>>own and which they deliver free OTA? Why give your competitor the
>
> means
>
>>to better you when you can keep it too yourselves and capture back
>>customers you have lost over the years to cable?
>
>
> It only makes sense if the OTA networks charge, otherwise they haven't
> lost anything when their content is broadcast on cable. How have they
> lost? They only lose if the cable company is collecting a fee they
> could be collecting themselfs.. then again, that's not FREE
> television. Regardless of how you position this, your stance is
> anti-Free High Defintion OTA programming. Which is bad for the
> industry, why should customers have to pay more for High Defintion
> content... Your thoughts are more along the lines of why shouldn't they
> have to pay...
>

I am not anti anything but the modulation 8-VSB. Stating the obvious,
that to make the most money broadcasters will multicast and retain their
best content or even all of their content for a cable like OTA
subscription service, is not being anti HD. Most broadcasters are public
companies. They could be sued by their shareholders if the don't do
this. They have NO obligation to early adopters who claim inalienable
rights to the HD resolution.

Viewers with OTA receivers will NOT have to pay for ONE SD channel
broadcast free OTA as prescribed by Congress. Thats it. I suspect that
if broadcasters elect to deliver HD it will be with MPEG4 with a
subscription service. They will satisfy the Congressional demand for a
free program with ONE SD program period.


>
>>No sense. If broadcasters are charging a fee for most of their content
>>but not the one free SD program then they are competing with cable and
>>offering a less expensive package.
>
>
> I never disagreed with that, if they are charging any fee then they are
> most definately competing... but if they charge a fee they still must
> incure the cost of becoming a services company... From a customer
> support department to a accouting office to contracting maintence
> techs.. There is a huge cost their that you ignore.. and to really
> compete they would have to provide all the services of at least a
> satellite provider.

I didn't ignore it I just said it is about a quarter of the cost
incurred by cable. I don't think they can compete. And they don't have
to provide the number of channels that a satellite provider has to
either. Number of channels is not that important anymore.
>
>
>
>>They CAN'T by law charge for the free SD program per channel but cable DOES charge for that free channel now. OTA receivers will be given to OTA customers for free by broadcasters if
they sign up as subscribers just like cable.
>
>
> All high level details... explain to me how they will get these 8VSB 5th gen tunners into homes, explain how they will magicly create these
> 300+ channels, explain how they are going to steal advertising and subscribers from cable. In your mind the pricing is everything, You
> position your ideas as visionary, but they aren't. They are old school thinking. By integrating phone, high speed internet and subscription
> televison services

They pick up the receiver at WalMart as they sign up for the
subscription service. The programming content is magically created by
content creators and sold to cable, satellite and now OTA. USDTV had 12
such channels, new ventures will have 50 and more. You pick up the phone
and you call content providers and sign contracts to air their content
in your subscription service and you pay them per sub. Pretty simple stuff.
>
>
>>There will be a flood of wireless ventures that will compete with cable on the broadband front. Cable is big and fat and has been protected for years by having no competition behind their exclusive franchises.
>
>
> If you see a "flood" on the horizon, I challenge you to name five right now. Broadband cable has had competion for years ISDN lines were
> available long before, and DSL is available now (often for cheaper I might add), yet still DSL falls behind, because it's not consist, it's
> not realable. In Houston TimeWarner is already setting up wireless access points around the city for their subscribers, cable companies
> have the infrastructure and to counter these start ups and again they can combine services and provide a discount.

I did not mention ISDN or DSL, I mentioned broadband wireless. The
equipment is just now becoming available. It presents competitors the
ability to offer services without the need of a franchise and without
the need to wire up a whole city. Cable will be eaten alive by multiple
providers who offer a wide assortment of innovative and personalized
services. You will see Gbps mesh networks growing organically soon. NOT
your fathers ISDN or DSL.

Cables "infrastructure " is what will cause their demise. Billions of
debt tied up in infrastructure. The credit markets are not going to fund
another round of infrastructure building on top of the mountains of debt
they already have. The credit markets are going to fund the new upstarts
who have NO debt going in. Cable had a monopoly and that is why they
were funded. NO LONGER. By by credit. And once they are on that slippery
slope its all one way.

Bob Miller
>
> -Jeremy
>
 
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jeremy@pdq.net wrote:


> ... cable companies
> have the infrastructure and to counter these start ups and again they
> can combine services and provide a discount.
>
> -Jeremy
>
One more thing. Think of cable companies like the airlines before
deregulation and now. New upstarts are killing off the old airlines
because the old airlines have lots of debt and pensions, an old way of
dealing with passengers and they can't seem to change.

There is no government deregulation of cable companies but they are in
the same boat since their franchise monopoly that protected then against
all competition except satellite is not going to protect them from new
broadcasters using mobile receivers that happen to work fixed to on DTV
spectrum being auctioned, old broadcasters using 5th gen 8-VSB receivers
and MPEG4 and new wireless two way broadband Internet. All these can
deliver a TV experience that competes with cable where they have had no
competition before except satellite and satellite has not been doing
that bad.

But satellite has problems that these new upstarts do NOT have. Cable is
a grave risk from at least the three fronts I listed all of which do not
need a franchise and can deliver what cable does. In the case of
broadband wireless that included VOD, VOIP, HD etc. In the case of
mobile broadcast they deliver mobile witch cable cannot match. I simply
cannot imagine cable surviving the coming battles. It will look ancient
and decrepit in comparison.

Bob Miller
 
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