Archived from groups: rec.audio.tech,rec.audio.opinion (
More info?)
Clyde Slick wrote:
> "ScottW" <ScottW48@hotmail.com> wrote in message
> news:YqbRe.99627$Ep.64584@lakeread02...
> >
> > "Clyde Slick" <artsackman@comcast.net> wrote in message
> > news:1125463223_8687@spool6-east.superfeed.net...
> >>
> >> "ScottW" <ScottW48@hotmail.com> wrote in message
> >> news:EdaRe.99623$Ep.5498@lakeread02...
> >>>
> >>> "Clyde Slick" <artsackman@comcast.net> wrote in message
> >>> news:1125442034_8269@spool6-east.superfeed.net...
> >>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>
> >>>> You just said earlier "WHERE ANYONE EVER HEARD A DIFFERENCE"
> >>>
> >>> Come on Art... a perfectly random trial will have half the participants
> >>> over 50%.
> >>> One coming in at 81% one time doesn't sound like its outside the
> >>> expected
> >>> distribution for random responses of 15 participants.
> >>
> >> Bad work, you fiind one person who can hear, and fourteen
> >> who can't, test them, then disregard the result of that one, for
> >> the deficiencies of the other fourteen.
> >
> > Back to school you ole fart. Enroll in probability 101
> >
> > Look at it this way. Test the same guy 15 times.
> > He just might do very well one of those 15 times.
> > Was his hearing better that one time than all the others?
>
> That is not the way to look at it.
> That is one person, he is unique.
> The question is whether he heard differences.
Exactly. And now Ludovic has clarified that there were repeat trials
and his 83% number is a composite from all the trials...not just one
trial.
In the end... he has indicated they did EXACTLY what I said was
necessary to provide proof. Although 10 responses per trial is a bit
low...being able to
respond accurately in repeat trials is definitely significant.
Being able to respond accurately in one trial is not.
>
> > Its really just a matter of binary probability.
> > Give someone enough tries and they will get a decent
> > percentage right. Most tests are done to 90%
> > or 95% confidence. That still means that 1 of 10
> > or 1 of 20 times the results will be a false positive.
> > So you can see 1 positive subject out of 15 subjects
> > could very well be due to chance.
>
> sure, but chances are very substantial that one person heard differences and
> fourteen did not.
the initial 83% number was insufficient data to make that claim and I
still
can't access the original article.
> Just cause differences are there, doesn't mean that everyone
> has the capacity to recognize them.
Agreed.
>
> chances are one out of fifty that any one person has at least a 132 IQ.
Yes... but a single IQ test of 10 questions won't guarantee you found
him.
>
> chances are pretty good that at least one person in a group of fifty has
> an IQ of 132.
Sure...and probably 3 in 50 will ace a 10 question IQ test. Now what?
>
> but those are two different issues.
>
>
> > He must be tested again and the odds
> > of him succeeding again due to chance go to 1 in 100
> > or 1 in 400.
> > Now thats proof.
> >
> >>
> >> Not everyone is equal.
> >
> > Never said they were.
> >
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>> If we knew the number of trials we could figure it out exactly but
> >>> reality is...
> >>> one positive trial doesn't prove anything, even one 100% correct.
> >>
> >>
> >> It proves it for that one person.
> >
> > Not true. We can actually expect one or even 2 persons to get
> > lucky in a group of 15 with a 90% confidence test. Its the odds.
> > Let him repeat the test. If he is truly gifted he should
> > be able to repeat. If not... then it was probably random chance or
> > luck.
> >
>
> even with one run of tests the odds are very substantial
> that it was not chance.
Maybe for 100% correct or even 9 of 10. But for 8 of 10 the numbers
don't bear you out. In fact... in one test run... say 10 responses...
you have ~4.3% chance of getting 8 of 10 just due to chance. So with
15 subjects we would expect that 64% of the time (more than half) one
of the 15 is gonna get 8 right.
I'm sorry but you have less than 1 chance in 2 that the 1 person with
8 right (of 15 who were tested) is truly golden eared after a one run
of tests.
Heres a good tutorial.
http/www.fourmilab.ch/rpkp/experiments/statistics.html
ScottW