Analysts Pick Sony PS3 to Win Current Console War

[kiniku]

Hands down the PS3 is the most full featured console to date. And all these Mom's basement hardware expert opinions: save it. I remember years ago when all these sites were predicting doom and gloom for the PS3. I laughed hard when someone said that BR players are cheaper than the PS3. How things have changed. HA HA. The PS3 was made for the long term. Sony's feature support for it and its streamlining of there unit makes that very clear.

 

[wesk]

The Xbox360 probably wasn't considered in the article, because they actually don't know how many consoles are in use. With a 45% fail rate many users have bought two or more (including me). The Wii has a sub 5% and PS3 has a sub 3% fail rate. Considering fail rates into the equation most sales tracking sites consider the PS3 as already passed 360 in "systems in use", just not overall sales.

 

[nottheking]

I see that there are still plenty of analysts that have the big-megacorp thinking that "corporate inertia bests all." I.e, that because the PS2 was the best of the 6th generation, the PS3 MUST win the 7th... 'course, that logic fails to explain the PS1's triumph 3:1 over the N64. Either that, or they've bought Sony's marketting BS hook, line, and sinker; anyone on Tom's can see that the PS3's hardware is positively ancient by now; and thanks to the wonders of Moore's law, Nintendo could introduce a NEW $250 console that cost them as much as the Wii did in 2006, and it'd make the PS3 look like a PS1.

Overall, SACHD is being downright ludicrous... Perhaps even outright stupid. They're calling for, in the next 3-5 years, for the PS3 to sell 279.1% MORE in that period than it did during its first 3.5 years. I.e, it'd have to jump to roughly TRIPPLE the rate it's been at so far RIGHT NOW in order to make that "goal" of 127 million units by the time 2014 rolls around. Meanwhile, they're predicting that the Wii, with nearly 70 million units out ALREADY, would be hit with a very steep drop-off... If they don't peak until "2011," then by then they'd have ~90 million sold by the beginning of that year, which means that they're predicted to drop from ~20 million a year to 13 million from 2011, to whenever INSIDE that year they'd peak, and then afterward.

All told, I can't see the Wii NOT keeping its #1 spot by a clear margin... The PS3's main strength STILL is blu-ray, but Blu-ray isn't anywhere NEAR the seller DVD was. That's because you didn't need an expensive HDTV to properly enjoy DVD, and DVD offered WORLDS of improvement over VHS for everyone... It was cheaper and more convenient for publishers, sellers, AND users, while Blu-ray is more expensive all-around, offers no further convenience, (and in fact is a bit of a hassle for producers)

My predictions? (which by contrast to the 'professional' ones, are free and more accurate) The ranking will remain the same, basically in stone; Sony's never managed to deviate from the distance they've been trailing Microsoft, so they'll never overtake the 360; sure, the PS3 may play Blu-ray, but other blu-ray players are starting to become more mainstream, so the PS3's not so unique. Plus, the 360 has been the undisputed leader in having the best game selection for it, which goes much farther than hardware does. (as had been demonstrated in the PS2 vs. Xbox, where the fortunes had been exactly the opposite)

The Wii will maintain its massive lead. Its total market share might shrink a bit more, but the most killer lineup of 1st-party games seen yet, combined with a handful of 3rd-party gems, and plenty enough of cross-platform mainstream titles, (from Splinter Cell to CoD to Madden) will help it hold on. The Wii has plenty enough "hardcore" games... One must remember that "hardcore" doesn't mean an M rating and bloom. Graphics don't make "hardcore," otherwise only PC gamers enjoy hardcore. 😉

Assuming no new consoles come out before, say, 2012 or so, what the beginning of 2013 would look like should be is with 220 million consoles sold, (a 57% increase from the same time 3 years before) with:

- The Wii in #1 with 100 million consoles sold. (losing about 2.7% market share)
- The Xbox 360 in #2 with 63 million consoles sold. (gaining about 0.9% market share)
- The PS3 in #3 with 57 million consoles sold. (gaining about 1.8% market share)

 

[nottheking]

I dunno who thought it necessary to vote down my comment without daring to try and put a response, but I will grant that perhaps I wasn't so clear on my predictions on the end; I did mean that the Wii will probably lose some market share from its current position. The "changes" I mentioned would be percentage changes from their current share. Currently, as of the beginning of the year, there were ~140 million consoles sold; 67.45 of those, or ~48%, were Wiis.

Nintendo is bound to sell tens of millions of others, since the Wii shows no real signs of cooling much on sales, but the 360 and PS3 will likely improve their standings a little; we'll go from 48%/28%/24% each for the Wii/360/PS3, to 45%/29%/26%. Basically, I honestly don't see either the 360 or PS3 managing to take #1, even if the Wii suddenly stopped being manufactured.

[citation][nom]aethm[/nom]I think Sony is planning to push the PS3 for several more years. I would not be surprised at all to see the next Generation Xbox hit shelves in 2012 or 2013. The PS3 is FINALLY starting to get some good games. And I greatly prefer the controller as well.[/citation]
True, I think that in this generation, all console makers are perhaps looking to milk a bit more out of their investments... Particularly given as Microsoft and ESPECIALLY Sony sank huge amounts of money into their consoles, making them some of the most-expensive-to-produce consoles ever. (as only the 360, PS3, and Xbox debuted with a production cost exceeding their initial MSRP) Hence, we're already hitting the traditional 5-year mark where we SHOULD normally start seeing new consoles, yet without a word.

Nintendo, of course, is seeing how the Wii is basically printing them money, so as they run as businessmen, not enthusiasts, they see little reason to put out a new generation. Of course, this could make it tricky for Sony and Microsoft; should Nintendo's sales start to seriously slip, Mr. Iwata will likely be quick to judge that the Wii's time finally came, and push out an 8th-generation console... And as I mentioned before, even if they stuck to making a profit at a $250US price point, modern hardware now would mean such a machine would cream the current ones.

Though yes, I do agree that the 360's controller's design is of pure genius; I personally hold it to be the best controller design ever.

[citation][nom]kiniku[/nom]How things have changed.[/citation]
Actually, they haven't; when the PS3 came out in November 2006, the Xbox 360 led it by 6 million units sold; that was what Microsoft had managed to grab in the 1-year's head start they'd had. Currently, the number sold stands at 39 vs. 33.5 million; in other words, Sony's managed to close the gap by a whopping 500,000 units in about 3 years and 40 days. At this rate of about 440 consoles per day, it'll take them over 34 years to finish catching up.

[citation][nom]wesk[/nom]The Xbox360 probably wasn't considered in the article, because they actually don't know how many consoles are in use. With a 45% fail rate[/citation]
That's a greatly exaggerated figure; many of these large numbers for the 360 were outright made up, or based on VERY flawed data, such as GameInformer's infamous Internet poll. (said poll didn't actually require respondents to show they ever owned any console; it basically assumed everyone would be truthful)

A study put out late last year by a warranty firm that likely would have a better clue put the rate closer to 23.7% after 2 years of use per console, of which about half were due to RROD; excepting RROD, that brought the failure rate down comparable to Sony's 10%.

 

[Guest]

for the record ps3s cell processor ROCKs xboxs three core system, i think the reason that ps3 will win isbecause xbox justisnt powerful enough anymore, it nowhere near powerful enough to handle newer ps3 exclusive like heavy rain and god of war 3, even final fantasy xiii the only major game that xbox released for march so far is so completely infirior to ps3 version. as for bluray, despite the fact that is one of the best players available today, and despite the fact thatitsone of the only players that recieves regular updates, the blu ray disk allows for BIGGER games, god of war3 is about 35gb, and final fantasy xiii is lossless on the ps3 version because of blu ray, but the xbox version wascompressed to over half the size. also tekken 6 has better cgi on ps3 then xbox for thatspecific reason.

tru the xbox had a huge head start but in the end i think its what killed microsoft. the technology in the xbox is a year behind ps3. itstrue that the ps2 winning the console war lst time was largely because of the headstart, but hat doesnt really apply today because technology advances way to quickly, the 360 in a way kind of absoleted itself (i know that absoleted isnt a word, i was verbing) several years before the end of the generation

as for natal and move, i acknowledge that i could be dead wrong in this, but i think their going to be irrelavant, the whole point of it is to get the casual gamer to get ps3 and 360s but itwont matter because nintendo has to big of a monopoly on that demographic, they shouldstick to the hardcores, plusfrom what i read move sux (and im a PS3 "FANBOY")

on the wii...of course the casual gamer demographic is a group that includes everyone except for hard core games, while the hard core gamers demographic includes only hard core gamers, so nintendos market completely trumps the market that ps3 and microsoft split up pretty evenly (though that is of course up to much debate).
therefore in conclusion the nintendo wii will win the current console war but in a way that wont really affect the current console generation since they have ONLY a casual gamer demographic. ps3 will come in second place and be the "true" gaming console of the generation as ps2 was (for the record ps2 beat xbox by well over 100 million units). and xbox 360 will be irrelavent.

keep in mind that this is merely my own speculation and i could of course be dead wrong. but at least im not an undesevedly arrogant 360fanboy who calls another commenter a ps3 fanboy for saying theps3 beats the 360 in raw power. u no who you are.

lastly to the person who said
"I hate these dumb 360 vs wii vs PS3 arguments. Each one of these systems wins in certain areas. Anyone who says "this ONE is the best..." and all that is just some overly loyal person to what? A console?"
ur either a fucking pussy who cant pick sides or a complete moron, u do realize that pretty much every game no (other then 1st partys) are coming out to both systems, i dont know about you but id want the console which comes out with the better version