"2) Unlike PC users, the majority of console users are not really aware of what's going on, and just buy things by impulse. Is likely that if you have a Xbox 360 you'll be picking a XONE, this also works for Sony, the base of Microsoft console owners is bigger, so they will sell more consoles"
But you forget, a good portion of 360 owners and their parents are quite unhappy with microsofts quality control with the 360, I've heard several people saying their skipping the new xbox for just that reason, it costs these people a lot of money to keep their xbox going because usually repairs are out of warranty. My guild leader in FFXI has it "constantly" burn out, and is quite displeased.
As for things like parents, their gullible and naive on the average, I think the cost will sway them the most (Which deeply hurt sony with the PS3 launch that MS quickly took advantage of), and the as marketing suggests, the number on the box.
People are more likely to buy a bigger numbered object then a smaller one because they feel it's newer and more powerful, so to them, Playstation 4 would be a better buy then an xbox one just purely off the name alone. I'm surprised this passed microsoft's marketing team... And then I look at win8.. (Love it or hate it, metro was not something consumers wanted, and it's easily reflected in sales.)
As for kids, thats difficult, they pretty much go where their friends are, they've little brand loyalty like older gamers. So if their friends are getting a PS4, that's likely where they will go too. Microsoft soured a lot of relationships with their initial reveal, and those have yet to mend, but most prominent among the older gamers and parents.
I'm also curious how non-gamer parents (Gamers have already acted unkindly) will react to kinect being more mandatory, maybe not absolutely required anymore but still omnipresent specifically when you consider the recent NSA reveals about spying and prism, kinect can easily be seen as the most top solution to spying on america, and thus by belief, a scary object in eroding what remains of privacy.