More evidence that TiVo is dying

[Guest]

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

John Graham (jgraham10@cox.net) wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:
> > Everybody that did so less than two years ago still pays $12.95/month
> > from an accounting perspective.
>
> Unlike a monthly fee that Tivo receives each and every month a lifetime
> subscription can only be counted on the books once and that is for the
> year it was purchased. After that the lifetime user is a liability and not a
> revenue generator.

It depends on where that money is.

It could be placed into an "escrow" fund and doled out to TiVo exactly as
if they were getting monthly revenue.

The point is that lifetime subscriptions that haven't gone for 2 years have
yet to become a real liability.

> You also need to take in to account
> that if a user has more than one box they also get a discounted monthly
> fee of $6.95 and that includes a person that has a lifetime sub and a monthly
> box or two.

Although common in this group, most people don't have more than one box.

Still, it points out that TiVo feels they can make some money at just $6.95
per month, so that really makes anybody who is paying $12.95/month (either
physically or logically) an big win for TiVo.

--
Jeff Rife |
| http/www.nabs.net/Cartoons/OverTheHedge/VelveetaAndRotel.gif

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

In article <jY2Sd.8232$yr.6655@okepread05>, John Graham wrote:
> Jeff Rife wrote:
>> John Graham (jgraham10@cox.net) wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:
>>>> If every SA subscriber pays $12.95/month, that's $19.4M/month. So,
>>>> the less than $3M from DirecTV is about 13% of their business.
>>>> Yeah, it's some money, but 250K new SA subscribers will make up for
>>>> it. Losing 1.5M subscribers and being able to make up for their
>>>> losss with 250K new subscribers isn't too bad a deal.
>>> You need to take into account those of us that paid for the lifetime
>>> sub.
>>
>> Everybody that did so less than two years ago still pays $12.95/month
>> from an accounting perspective.
>
> Unlike a monthly fee that Tivo receives each and every month a lifetime
> subscription can only be counted on the books once and that is for the
> year it was purchased. After that the lifetime user is a liability and not a
> revenue generator. I understand your logic but it only applies to when
> my box is in the black and paid off. You also need to take in to account
> that if a user has more than one box they also get a discounted monthly
> fee of $6.95 and that includes a person that has a lifetime sub and a monthly
> box or two. You can have up to 5 boxes that get the discounted fee.
> There are alot of variables that need to be taken into account to accuratly
> show how much possible growth Tivo could do. That info should be in the
> filings with the SEC that Tivo has to do since they are traded.

No, Lifetime is accounted as a monthly fee spread out over a FOUR year
period. Only the earliest 1-2% of lifetime subscriptions are now not
furnishing any income (accounting-wise) to TiVo. All of this is in
TiVo's quarterly statements.

At their last quarterly report (fall 2004), TiVo was getting about
$5.2 million per month net service revenue from the standalones (after
paying for service costs), and about $1.75 million per month net
revenue from DirecTV. The percentage of net revenue from standalones
has been very steadily increasing, even as the percentage of
DirecTiVo's increases. The monthly fee per DirecTV subscription was
about $1.25, and is still decreasing.

So the net service revenue from just the 250K new subscribers in the
jsut ended quarter is almost (not quite) as much as they had been getting
from all of their DirecTV subscribers.

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

"George Eberhardt" <geberhardt@comcast.net> wrote in message
news:37m9urF4rf8emU1@individual.net...
> Today CNBC reported that TiVo added about 700,000 subscribers in the
> Christmas quarter, and now have over three million subscribers.
>
> So its sure that TiVo will die any day now. RATS!
>
>
> --
> George Eberhardt
> (732)224-8988
>
>
>
>

Yep, and as a result TIVO stock is up another 6% today, after a good week
last week. Must be rigor mortis.

Rick

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

On Sun, 20 Feb 2005 10:32:09 -0600, "John Graham" <jgraham10@cox.net>
wrote:

>> Everybody that did so less than two years ago still pays $12.95/month
>> from an accounting perspective.
>
>Unlike a monthly fee that Tivo receives each and every month a lifetime
>subscription can only be counted on the books once and that is for the
>year it was purchased. After that the lifetime user is a liability and not a
>revenue generator. I understand your logic but it only applies to when
>my box is in the black and paid off. You also need to take in to account
>that if a user has more than one box they also get a discounted monthly
>fee of $6.95 and that includes a person that has a lifetime sub and a monthly
>box or two. You can have up to 5 boxes that get the discounted fee.
>There are alot of variables that need to be taken into account to accuratly
>show how much possible growth Tivo could do. That info should be in the
>filings with the SEC that Tivo has to do since they are traded. Tivo's future
>will depend on how fast they can get a HD and Cable Card unit out to the
>market and how well the Cable Co's start allowing Cable Card units to be
>on their systems as this will take a revenue stream from them. It will also add
>another but not as lucrative as charging a rental fee on a box and then a
>service
>fee for the guide data too.


I don't see one more 'Nielsen family' as a liability, and neither does
TiVo....I hope.
How much can TiVo even possibly pay for guide data in the first place?
It is available for free on at least six websites that come to mind.
Hell, most of the homegrown computer based DVRs can pull and use it
for free just like one can with a TiVo.
If they don't penetrate a BUNCH of homes and soon, they will be doomed
in the not so distant future. The revenue sources you talk of are
chump change compared to the advertising $$$ they are in reach of.

 

[Sean]

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

On Fri, 18 Feb 2005 23:15:27 +0000 (UTC), newsREMOVE@THISmegazone.org
(MegaZone) wrote:

>Sean <none> shaped the electrons to say:
>>Yes. About 450,000 of them are Directv customers. So in a few months
>>they'll be ex-tivo subscribers.
>
>Sean, this has been proven bullshit over and over, can you think of
>something new?
>
>DirecTV has said they will *NOT* be moving existing people off of TiVo
>- they have no intention of replacing a couple million DirecTiVo
>systems, and they will continue to operate for the forseeable future.
>
>The only units with *any* uncertainty is the HD DirecTiVo, but even
>there it looks like existing national and spot beams will remain MPEG2
>for the foreseeable future.
>
>-MZ, RHCE #806199299900541, ex-CISSP #3762


Oh, right. Just like when the Directv guy quit the Tivo board.

All is well. No need to worry here. Directv loves Tivo.

Then Directtv sold all it's Tivo stock.

All is well. No need to worry here. Directv loves Tivo.

Then Directv buys a company that makes DVR's.

All is well. No need to worry here. Directv loves tivo.

Then Directv says they'll stop pushing Tivos and roll out their own
DVR.

All is well. No need to worry here. Directv loves Tivo.

Get a freakin grip megazone. As soon as the new DVR's
are available, Directv will begin replacing the existing Tivos and
never sell another new one.

I have no idea how they'll market it but I can guarantee they'll
make it worth the customers while to fork over some more cash to
replace their existing Tivo. Just wait. You'll see.

Of course you're already on record as saying the cable co's would
never replace their first generation hardware DVR's because they cost
$800 and that'd be too costly for them.

Wrong.

Comcast is on it's second Motorola box and other cable cos are on
their second SA box. All a customer has to do is pick up the phone and
say, bring me the new box. It magically appears a few days later.

Installed. For free.

Directv is going to be different?

Sean

 

[Sean]

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

On Fri, 18 Feb 2005 22:18:18 -0500, Jeff Rife <wevsr@nabs.net> wrote:

>MegaZone (newsREMOVE@THISmegazone.org) wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:
>> Sean <none> shaped the electrons to say:
>> >Yes. About 450,000 of them are Directv customers. So in a few months
>> >they'll be ex-tivo subscribers.
>>
>> Sean, this has been proven bullshit over and over, can you think of
>> something new?
>>
>> DirecTV has said they will *NOT* be moving existing people off of TiVo
>> - they have no intention of replacing a couple million DirecTiVo
>> systems, and they will continue to operate for the forseeable future.
>
>Even if DirecTV dropped TiVo completely and stopped paying TiVo any money,
>the loss would not be much in terms of money. TiVo gets anywhere from
>$6.95 to $12.95 per month from standalone subscribers, while a DirecTV DVR
>subscriber gets them less than $2.00/month.

I think it's something like $1.20 per month.

LKind of puts those 450,000 new subscribers from Directv in
perspective, doesn't it?

Sean

 

[Sean]

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

On Sat, 19 Feb 2005 02:06:13 GMT, Jack Zwick <jzwick3@mindspring.com>
wrote:

>In article <6287-42167EF9-1092@storefull-3258.bay.webtv.net>,
> SAC441@webtv.net (SAC 441) wrote:
>
>> Essentially,what it will boil down to is this: COMPETITION for the cable
>> companies....I never said outright displacement of market share.With the
>> new HD capability of satellite,it will increase so-called "churn".Both
>> sat companies and cablecos hate churn or constant switching of viewer
>> groups from one service to another.With full local HD capability from
>> satcos,a customer would have a CHOICE to put up a dish if he was
>> dissatisfied with the offerings or service from his cable company OR
>> VICE VERSA.People for a long time have long complained about issues with
>> service and attitudes from cablecos......now with HD similarly being
>> offered on a national scale in 2007,cable companies will now have to pay
>> more attention to retaining customers more so than they have in the
>> past.No more treating the customer with disrespect because they have an
>> exclusive franchised territory anymore.It renders this more and more
>> meaningless.....it is going to be harder for them from now on.And to my
>> mind this is GOOD.
>
>You'd think that wouldn't you, but Cable companies haven't learned and
>aren't likely to. They've lost 20 million customers to minidish
>satellite in the last 8 years, and continue on as if they were still the
>monopoly they were in 1993. Get your frequent bad picture and call up
>your cable company, you're likely to get a Kelly girl insist that you're
>probably not on Channel 3; or if you can convince them you haven't
>changed anything, they'll put you down for a service call a week from
>Thursday. Cable companies are like cellular carriers. Once you're signed
>up; you're just a piece of cash flow, that can safely be ignored, and if
>you want support, it may be cheaper in the short run to lose you as a
>customer.
>
>I've been with DirecTv for 8 years now, and it's so nice to come home
>from work, get into my "LazyBoy" recliner turn on the TV and not have to
>think "I wonder what kind of reception I'll get today from cable".
>With DirecTv I have no snow, no ghosts, no "noisy" picture, no hum bars,
>no color fading in and out, just an excellent picture all the time on
>EVERY channel. On the rare occasion I call up DirecTv on their 800
>number the quality of the staff is an order of magnitude better than
>anything I ever got from Cable or Cellular.

Thanks for admitting that your view of cable is 8 years old.

It's a new century Jackie.

I have Comcast and they've been great.

Sean

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

In article <civ62153rbhpae32fdev6in0c34hei6uhq@4ax.com>,
Sean <sean386@yahoo.com> wrote:

> On Fri, 18 Feb 2005 22:18:18 -0500, Jeff Rife <wevsr@nabs.net> wrote:
>
> >MegaZone (newsREMOVE@THISmegazone.org) wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:
> >> Sean <none> shaped the electrons to say:
> >> >Yes. About 450,000 of them are Directv customers. So in a few months
> >> >they'll be ex-tivo subscribers.
> >>
> >> Sean, this has been proven bullshit over and over, can you think of
> >> something new?
> >>
> >> DirecTV has said they will *NOT* be moving existing people off of TiVo
> >> - they have no intention of replacing a couple million DirecTiVo
> >> systems, and they will continue to operate for the forseeable future.
> >
> >Even if DirecTV dropped TiVo completely and stopped paying TiVo any money,
> >the loss would not be much in terms of money. TiVo gets anywhere from
> >$6.95 to $12.95 per month from standalone subscribers, while a DirecTV DVR
> >subscriber gets them less than $2.00/month.
>
> I think it's something like $1.20 per month.
>
> LKind of puts those 450,000 new subscribers from Directv in
> perspective, doesn't it?
>
> Sean

I may be missing something, but if you are so much against Tivo, why do
you bother to post to this group?

--
Robert B. Peirce, Venetia, PA 724-941-6883
bob AT peirce-family.com [Mac]
rbp AT cooksonpeirce.com [Office]

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

On Tue, 01 Mar 2005 01:49:25 +0000, Robert Peirce wrote:

> I may be missing something, but if you are so much against Tivo, why do
> you bother to post to this group?

The only thing you're missing is that he's your common, garden-variety,
troll.

--
Lenroc

 

[Sean]

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

On Tue, 01 Mar 2005 01:49:25 GMT, Robert Peirce
<bob@peirce-family.com.invalid> wrote:

>In article <civ62153rbhpae32fdev6in0c34hei6uhq@4ax.com>,
> Sean <sean386@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>> On Fri, 18 Feb 2005 22:18:18 -0500, Jeff Rife <wevsr@nabs.net> wrote:
>>
>> >MegaZone (newsREMOVE@THISmegazone.org) wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:
>> >> Sean <none> shaped the electrons to say:
>> >> >Yes. About 450,000 of them are Directv customers. So in a few months
>> >> >they'll be ex-tivo subscribers.
>> >>
>> >> Sean, this has been proven bullshit over and over, can you think of
>> >> something new?
>> >>
>> >> DirecTV has said they will *NOT* be moving existing people off of TiVo
>> >> - they have no intention of replacing a couple million DirecTiVo
>> >> systems, and they will continue to operate for the forseeable future.
>> >
>> >Even if DirecTV dropped TiVo completely and stopped paying TiVo any money,
>> >the loss would not be much in terms of money. TiVo gets anywhere from
>> >$6.95 to $12.95 per month from standalone subscribers, while a DirecTV DVR
>> >subscriber gets them less than $2.00/month.
>>
>> I think it's something like $1.20 per month.
>>
>> LKind of puts those 450,000 new subscribers from Directv in
>> perspective, doesn't it?
>>
>> Sean
>
>I may be missing something, but if you are so much against Tivo, why do
>you bother to post to this group?


It's like watching a slow motion car crash. Afetr you warned the
drivers involved that they were headed for the crash months ago.

Yet they drive merrily along in their ignorant bliss.

I just have to watch.

Sean

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

In article <klqs11plaipesmb7pcdtamo9gdc2tr9cd2@4ax.com>,
kryppy <kryppy@gmail.cc> wrote:

> Hell, most of the homegrown computer based DVRs can pull and use it
> for free just like one can with a TiVo.

And its VERY nontrivial to pull it down, massage it, reformat it, and
import it into the "free" DVR programs. The time saved not going through
those hoops alone pays for TiVo service.

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

"Sean" <none> wrote in message
news:kp6h21l5rh4b0lsv67682frvd49329sogp@4ax.com...
>
> Like I said. Comcast has been great.

Congratulations, you are now the official Comcast rumpswab and apologist
extrordinnaire.

Ed
84HurstOlds@nowherenow.com

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

Sean wrote:

> When the new sattelites launch. You won't be watching those new HD
> channels on your Tivo.

We'll be watching them on a replacement TiVo.

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

Sean wrote:
> On Tue, 08 Mar 2005 00:48:54 -0800, Joe Smith <joe@inwap.com> wrote:
>
> >Sean wrote:
> >
> >> When the new sattelites launch. You won't be watching those new HD
> >> channels on your Tivo.
> >
> >We'll be watching them on a replacement TiVo.
>
> Yes. Very true.
>
> What's the name of the NDS product that will be out in a few months?

There isn't an NDS product coming out in a few months (at least, not
one related to this thread or this newsgroup).

 

[Sean]

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

On Tue, 08 Mar 2005 00:48:54 -0800, Joe Smith <joe@inwap.com> wrote:

>Sean wrote:
>
>> When the new sattelites launch. You won't be watching those new HD
>> channels on your Tivo.
>
>We'll be watching them on a replacement TiVo.

Yes. Very true.

What's the name of the NDS product that will be out in a few months?

Sean

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

<in2sheep@yahoo.com> wrote in message news:1110307673.616369.323660@z14g2000cwz.googlegroups.com...
>
> Sean wrote:
> > On Tue, 08 Mar 2005 00:48:54 -0800, Joe Smith <joe@inwap.com> wrote:
> >
> > >Sean wrote:
> > >
> > >> When the new sattelites launch. You won't be watching those new HD
> > >> channels on your Tivo.
> > >
> > >We'll be watching them on a replacement TiVo.
> >
> > Yes. Very true.
> >
> > What's the name of the NDS product that will be out in a few months?
>
> There isn't an NDS product coming out in a few months (at least, not
> one related to this thread or this newsgroup).
>

Look here...
http/www.directv.com/DTVAPP/aboutus/headline.dsp?id=01-06-2005E
"The new DIRECTV interactive DVR will be commercially available in mid-2005."
/
This is not the anticipated HD DVR design from Motorola/Ucentric.
There is no mention of NDS or TiVo in the news item, but the features
are not those used to characterize a current model DirecTV DVR with TiVo.
There is speculation the design is from NDS and will be manufactured
by Thomson or Humax.

There is no reason to believe that a new DirecTV DVR with TiVo will not
have the same service life as a competitive product available today from
a cable company. The internal components of the TiVo designed product
are as reliable as components used in cable company provided DVRs.

The user interface on a TiVo DVR is superior to any cable company
provided DVR currently available.

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

I knew you were going to say that.

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

relaxificat...@hotmail.com wrote:
> I knew you were going to say that.

You knew who was going to say what?

It's one thing to include hundreds of not-related lines like Sean does
and it's another to not include ANY lines of context. There is a
middle ground you know.

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

Sorry. I assumed it would be obvious given it was posted right after
Sean's. Looking at it now I see it isn't really that obvious.

I meant it in response to Sean's post.

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (More info?)

In article <oqnXd.5368$C47.1663@newssvr14.news.prodigy.com>,
"Jack Ak" <akjack@excite.com> wrote:

>
> <in2sheep@yahoo.com> wrote in message
> news:1110307673.616369.323660@z14g2000cwz.googlegroups.com...
> >
> > Sean wrote:
> > > On Tue, 08 Mar 2005 00:48:54 -0800, Joe Smith <joe@inwap.com> wrote:
> > >
> > > >Sean wrote:
> > > >
> > > >> When the new sattelites launch. You won't be watching those new HD
> > > >> channels on your Tivo.
> > > >
> > > >We'll be watching them on a replacement TiVo.
> > >
> > > Yes. Very true.
> > >
> > > What's the name of the NDS product that will be out in a few months?
> >
> > There isn't an NDS product coming out in a few months (at least, not
> > one related to this thread or this newsgroup).
> >
>
> Look here...
> http/www.directv.com/DTVAPP/aboutus/headline.dsp?id=01-06-2005E
> "The new DIRECTV interactive DVR will be commercially available in
> mid-2005."

Thats a Jan 6 Press Release, and there's already doubt that deadline
will be met.


> /
> This is not the anticipated HD DVR design from Motorola/Ucentric.
> There is no mention of NDS or TiVo in the news item, but the features
> are not those used to characterize a current model DirecTV DVR with TiVo.
> There is speculation the design is from NDS and will be manufactured
> by Thomson or Humax.

DirecTv has already contracted with Humax. Motorola just signed a
Billion Dollar deal for set top boxes for ComCast.


>
> There is no reason to believe that a new DirecTV DVR with TiVo will not
> have the same service life as a competitive product available today from
> a cable company. The internal components of the TiVo designed product
> are as reliable as components used in cable company provided DVRs.
>
> The user interface on a TiVo DVR is superior to any cable company
> provided DVR currently available.

And the TiVo performs far more reliably without the reboots, lockups and
partial (unexpected) recordings reported on the Scientific Atlanta and
Motorola boxes used by the Cable companies.