More evidence that TiVo is dying

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Today CNBC reported that TiVo added about 700,000 subscribers in the
Christmas quarter, and now have over three million subscribers.

So its sure that TiVo will die any day now. RATS!


--
George Eberhardt
(732)224-8988
 

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On Fri, 18 Feb 2005 08:47:06 -0500, "George Eberhardt"
<geberhardt@comcast.net> wrote:

>Today CNBC reported that TiVo added about 700,000 subscribers in the
>Christmas quarter, and now have over three million subscribers.
>
>So its sure that TiVo will die any day now. RATS!

Yes. About 450,000 of them are Directv customers. So in a few months
they'll be ex-tivo subscribers.

Tivo is still a Dead Company Walking

Sean
 
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.....and a LOT of cable companies will be hurting too once DirecTV
launches their Spaceway satellites with the MPEG-4 Ka-cluster.When 1500
local channels become available in high definition in 2 years time via
satellite,even Comcast is going to feel the competitive pressure of
that.....while it may not be a TiVo system,it will definitely be
"TiVo-like".
And what is the big deal with VOD anyway?
Hotels and Guest Inns have had this feature for YEARS.......it is hardly
a new idea.
 
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In article <37m9urF4rf8emU1@individual.net>,
"George Eberhardt" <geberhardt@comcast.net> wrote:

> Today CNBC reported that TiVo added about 700,000 subscribers in the
> Christmas quarter, and now have over three million subscribers.
>
> So its sure that TiVo will die any day now. RATS!

Wall Street likes it:

"TiVo shares rose 7.5 percent, in premarket trading after closing
Thursday "
 
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"Jack Zwick" <jzwick3@mindspring.com> wrote in message
news:jzwick3-4289C2.08064418022005@news1.east.earthlink.net...
> In article <37m9urF4rf8emU1@individual.net>,
> "George Eberhardt" <geberhardt@comcast.net> wrote:
>
> > Today CNBC reported that TiVo added about 700,000 subscribers in the
> > Christmas quarter, and now have over three million subscribers.
> >
> > So its sure that TiVo will die any day now. RATS!
>
> Wall Street likes it:
>

So do I; but I'm waiting to see how Sean can show that this is an important
sign of TiVo's imminent collapse.

--
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(732)224-8988
 
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"SAC 441" <SAC441@webtv.net> wrote in message news:6596-421664A9-1064@storefull-3251.bay.webtv.net...
> ....and a LOT of cable companies will be hurting too once DirecTV
> launches their Spaceway satellites with the MPEG-4 Ka-cluster.When 1500
> local channels become available in high definition in 2 years time via
> satellite,even Comcast is going to feel the competitive pressure of
> that.....while it may not be a TiVo system,it will definitely be
> "TiVo-like".
> And what is the big deal with VOD anyway?
> Hotels and Guest Inns have had this feature for YEARS.......it is hardly
> a new idea.
>

Not everyone is predicting a dire future for TiVo.
The Carmel Group is saying TiVo will have 1/3 of the DVR market in 2008...

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1000807966
 
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Sean <none> shaped the electrons to say:
>Yes. About 450,000 of them are Directv customers. So in a few months
>they'll be ex-tivo subscribers.

Sean, this has been proven bullshit over and over, can you think of
something new?

DirecTV has said they will *NOT* be moving existing people off of TiVo
- they have no intention of replacing a couple million DirecTiVo
systems, and they will continue to operate for the forseeable future.

The only units with *any* uncertainty is the HD DirecTiVo, but even
there it looks like existing national and spot beams will remain MPEG2
for the foreseeable future.

-MZ, RHCE #806199299900541, ex-CISSP #3762
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MegaZone (newsREMOVE@THISmegazone.org) wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:
> Sean <none> shaped the electrons to say:
> >Yes. About 450,000 of them are Directv customers. So in a few months
> >they'll be ex-tivo subscribers.
>
> Sean, this has been proven bullshit over and over, can you think of
> something new?
>
> DirecTV has said they will *NOT* be moving existing people off of TiVo
> - they have no intention of replacing a couple million DirecTiVo
> systems, and they will continue to operate for the forseeable future.

Even if DirecTV dropped TiVo completely and stopped paying TiVo any money,
the loss would not be much in terms of money. TiVo gets anywhere from
$6.95 to $12.95 per month from standalone subscribers, while a DirecTV DVR
subscriber gets them less than $2.00/month.

--
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| http://www.nabs.net/Cartoons/ShermansLagoon/OtherWhiteMeat.jpg
 
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SAC441@webtv.net (SAC 441) shaped the electrons to say:
>....and a LOT of cable companies will be hurting too once DirecTV
>launches their Spaceway satellites with the MPEG-4 Ka-cluster.When 1500
>local channels become available in high definition in 2 years time via
>satellite,even Comcast is going to feel the competitive pressure of

You do realize that they'll need to get agreements to be able to carry
the locals, and it isn't like any DTV user will have access to that
number of channels - just their own locals, if that. Cable will
almost certainly be offering the same channel lineups of national and
locals in HD - so I really don't see any big competitive advantage in

Those Ka birds are for spot beams. It will allow DirecTV to carry
more locals - but cable is already carrying the locals, or will be.
It isn't some overwhelming advantage to DTV.

DTV also has to deal with the growing demand for broadband - which is
something cable can provide and they can't. (Satellite broadband was
a flop, they tried it - they can't match terestrial speeds, or even
new wireless systems like WiMax.) And they'll have added competition
from IPTV which Verizon, SBC, and BellSouth are all pushing.
Verizon's fiber efforts are the most agressive - Verizon will be able
to offer fiber customers high speed data, full digital cable, IPTV,
voice, etc, over glass - they'll have more bandwidth than the cable
companies.

I'm not slagging DTV, I think they have a good service, but just
lofting four birds and adding Ka HD spot beams isn't going to somehow
make them unbeatable in the market.

> And what is the big deal with VOD anyway?

Ask the people who are making it one of the fastest revenue segments
for the cable market. VOD is popular - it is more than just a coupel
of movies now. There have been entire networks run as VOD - The Anime
Network started out as VOD, and still is in some markets (it is more a
'normal' network in others now). And some of the major name networks
are looking at VOD as a way to offer their shows without advertising.
Want to see Lost with no ads, whenever? Pay a buck an episode -
probably less in time.

Networks are looking at it as a possible way to fight DVRs - who needs
a DVR when you have a DVR-in-the-sky that has all the shows whenever
you want them? That's well in the future, but they're already talking
about it. HBO and Showtime are already embracing it.

Get the price down low enough and I'd probably be willing to subscribe
to the shows I like for a free to have them commercial free.

>Hotels and Guest Inns have had this feature for YEARS.......it is hardly
>a new idea.

The concept isn't new - how it is being used now is.

-MZ, RHCE #806199299900541, ex-CISSP #3762
--
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"A little nonsense now and then, is relished by the wisest men" 508-755-4098
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MegaZone (newsREMOVE@THISmegazone.org) wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:
> It will allow DirecTV to carry
> more locals - but cable is already carrying the locals, or will be.
> It isn't some overwhelming advantage to DTV.

True, but it is an overwhelming DISadvantage to not carry the locals like
cable does. Right now, HD locals aren't really a make/break thing, but
they will be really big two years from now. Satellites take much forward
thinking, so this time DirecTV got ahead of the curve.

> DTV also has to deal with the growing demand for broadband - which is
> something cable can provide and they can't.

The only reason this is true is the discounts for bundling will get higher
and higher until cable companies practically give away either the TV
service or the Internet service.

DirecTV doesn't have to do a damn thing about broadband if they don't want
to...they are a TV programming delivery company. Of course, they could
partner with somebody like Verizon and help Verizon get better deals for
the source of their FIOS TV channels.

> > And what is the big deal with VOD anyway?
>
> Ask the people who are making it one of the fastest revenue segments
> for the cable market. VOD is popular - it is more than just a coupel
> of movies now. There have been entire networks run as VOD - The Anime
> Network started out as VOD, and still is in some markets (it is more a
> 'normal' network in others now). And some of the major name networks
> are looking at VOD as a way to offer their shows without advertising.
> Want to see Lost with no ads, whenever? Pay a buck an episode -
> probably less in time.

Actually, DVRs for every customer will kill this. You can still pay a
buck (or whatever) an episode, but it doesn't require precious bandwidth.
VOD is only for people who can't plan ahead.

--
Jeff Rife | "Eternity with nerds. It's the Pasadena Star
| Trek convention all over again."
|
| -- Nichelle Nichols, "Futurama"
 
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Essentially,what it will boil down to is this: COMPETITION for the cable
companies....I never said outright displacement of market share.With the
new HD capability of satellite,it will increase so-called "churn".Both
sat companies and cablecos hate churn or constant switching of viewer
groups from one service to another.With full local HD capability from
satcos,a customer would have a CHOICE to put up a dish if he was
dissatisfied with the offerings or service from his cable company OR
VICE VERSA.People for a long time have long complained about issues with
service and attitudes from cablecos......now with HD similarly being
offered on a national scale in 2007,cable companies will now have to pay
more attention to retaining customers more so than they have in the
past.No more treating the customer with disrespect because they have an
exclusive franchised territory anymore.It renders this more and more
meaningless.....it is going to be harder for them from now on.And to my
mind this is GOOD.
 
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In article <6596-421664A9-1064@storefull-3251.bay.webtv.net>,
SAC441@webtv.net (SAC 441) wrote:

> And what is the big deal with VOD anyway?
> Hotels and Guest Inns have had this feature for YEARS.......it is hardly
> a new idea.

Hotels, Motels, Cable Companies, and Satellite companies make most of
their profits from selling "Adult" entertainment video programs via PPV.
 
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In article <6287-42167EF9-1092@storefull-3258.bay.webtv.net>,
SAC441@webtv.net (SAC 441) wrote:

> Essentially,what it will boil down to is this: COMPETITION for the cable
> companies....I never said outright displacement of market share.With the
> new HD capability of satellite,it will increase so-called "churn".Both
> sat companies and cablecos hate churn or constant switching of viewer
> groups from one service to another.With full local HD capability from
> satcos,a customer would have a CHOICE to put up a dish if he was
> dissatisfied with the offerings or service from his cable company OR
> VICE VERSA.People for a long time have long complained about issues with
> service and attitudes from cablecos......now with HD similarly being
> offered on a national scale in 2007,cable companies will now have to pay
> more attention to retaining customers more so than they have in the
> past.No more treating the customer with disrespect because they have an
> exclusive franchised territory anymore.It renders this more and more
> meaningless.....it is going to be harder for them from now on.And to my
> mind this is GOOD.

You'd think that wouldn't you, but Cable companies haven't learned and
aren't likely to. They've lost 20 million customers to minidish
satellite in the last 8 years, and continue on as if they were still the
monopoly they were in 1993. Get your frequent bad picture and call up
your cable company, you're likely to get a Kelly girl insist that you're
probably not on Channel 3; or if you can convince them you haven't
changed anything, they'll put you down for a service call a week from
Thursday. Cable companies are like cellular carriers. Once you're signed
up; you're just a piece of cash flow, that can safely be ignored, and if
you want support, it may be cheaper in the short run to lose you as a
customer.

I've been with DirecTv for 8 years now, and it's so nice to come home
from work, get into my "LazyBoy" recliner turn on the TV and not have to
think "I wonder what kind of reception I'll get today from cable".
With DirecTv I have no snow, no ghosts, no "noisy" picture, no hum bars,
no color fading in and out, just an excellent picture all the time on
EVERY channel. On the rare occasion I call up DirecTv on their 800
number the quality of the staff is an order of magnitude better than
anything I ever got from Cable or Cellular.
 
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Cable companies are like cellular carriers. Once you're signed
> up; you're just a piece of cash flow, that can safely be ignored, and if
> you want support, it may be cheaper in the short run to lose you as a
> customer.
Is this the very same JZ who waxes lovingly about Verizon in
alt.cellular.verizon, bashing same? Couldn't be.
 
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"Jeff Rife" <wevsr@nabs.net> wrote in message
news:MPG.1c807a01ec368dfc989b9d@news.nabs.net...
> MegaZone (newsREMOVE@THISmegazone.org) wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:
>> Sean <none> shaped the electrons to say:
>> >Yes. About 450,000 of them are Directv customers. So in a few months
>> >they'll be ex-tivo subscribers.
>>
>> Sean, this has been proven bullshit over and over, can you think of
>> something new?
>>
>> DirecTV has said they will *NOT* be moving existing people off of TiVo
>> - they have no intention of replacing a couple million DirecTiVo
>> systems, and they will continue to operate for the forseeable future.
>
> Even if DirecTV dropped TiVo completely and stopped paying TiVo any money,
> the loss would not be much in terms of money. TiVo gets anywhere from
> $6.95 to $12.95 per month from standalone subscribers, while a DirecTV DVR
> subscriber gets them less than $2.00/month.
>
> What kind of logic is this? Even 2$ per month for 2 million customers is
> what? 4 million per month? Not something to be ignored.
 
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On Fri, 18 Feb 2005 22:55:00 +0000, Jack Ak wrote:

> Not everyone is predicting a dire future for TiVo. The Carmel Group is
> saying TiVo will have 1/3 of the DVR market in 2008...
>
> http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1000807966

At the end of last year they had over a 36% share, so they're predicting
Tivo losing share, not gaining. And correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't
they used to have well over 50%? Are they dying? I don't know and don't
care, but I don't plan on buying a another Tivo.

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Golf God (nospamanytime@comcast.net) wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:
> > Even if DirecTV dropped TiVo completely and stopped paying TiVo any money,
> > the loss would not be much in terms of money. TiVo gets anywhere from
> > $6.95 to $12.95 per month from standalone subscribers, while a DirecTV DVR
> > subscriber gets them less than $2.00/month.
> >
> > What kind of logic is this? Even 2$ per month for 2 million customers is
> > what? 4 million per month? Not something to be ignored.

The split between SA and DirecTV subscribers is about 50/50, so that's 1.5M
each.

If every SA subscriber pays $12.95/month, that's $19.4M/month. So, the
less than $3M from DirecTV is about 13% of their business. Yeah, it's
some money, but 250K new SA subscribers will make up for it. Losing 1.5M
subscribers and being able to make up for their losss with 250K new
subscribers isn't too bad a deal.

--
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Jeff Rife wrote:
> Golf God (nospamanytime@comcast.net) wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:
Snip
>
> If every SA subscriber pays $12.95/month, that's $19.4M/month. So,
> the less than $3M from DirecTV is about 13% of their business. Yeah,
> it's some money, but 250K new SA subscribers will make up for it.
> Losing 1.5M subscribers and being able to make up for their losss
> with 250K new subscribers isn't too bad a deal.
You need to take into account those of us that paid for the lifetime sub.
John
 
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John Graham (jgraham10@cox.net) wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:
> > If every SA subscriber pays $12.95/month, that's $19.4M/month. So,
> > the less than $3M from DirecTV is about 13% of their business. Yeah,
> > it's some money, but 250K new SA subscribers will make up for it.
> > Losing 1.5M subscribers and being able to make up for their losss
> > with 250K new subscribers isn't too bad a deal.
> You need to take into account those of us that paid for the lifetime sub.

Everybody that did so less than two years ago still pays $12.95/month
from an accounting perspective.

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Jeff Rife wrote:
> John Graham (jgraham10@cox.net) wrote in alt.video.ptv.tivo:
>>> If every SA subscriber pays $12.95/month, that's $19.4M/month. So,
>>> the less than $3M from DirecTV is about 13% of their business.
>>> Yeah, it's some money, but 250K new SA subscribers will make up for
>>> it. Losing 1.5M subscribers and being able to make up for their
>>> losss with 250K new subscribers isn't too bad a deal.
>> You need to take into account those of us that paid for the lifetime
>> sub.
>
> Everybody that did so less than two years ago still pays $12.95/month
> from an accounting perspective.

Unlike a monthly fee that Tivo receives each and every month a lifetime
subscription can only be counted on the books once and that is for the
year it was purchased. After that the lifetime user is a liability and not a
revenue generator. I understand your logic but it only applies to when
my box is in the black and paid off. You also need to take in to account
that if a user has more than one box they also get a discounted monthly
fee of $6.95 and that includes a person that has a lifetime sub and a monthly
box or two. You can have up to 5 boxes that get the discounted fee.
There are alot of variables that need to be taken into account to accuratly
show how much possible growth Tivo could do. That info should be in the
filings with the SEC that Tivo has to do since they are traded. Tivo's future
will depend on how fast they can get a HD and Cable Card unit out to the
market and how well the Cable Co's start allowing Cable Card units to be
on their systems as this will take a revenue stream from them. It will also add
another but not as lucrative as charging a rental fee on a box and then a
service
fee for the guide data too.
John
 
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