Hints at E3 2012 and a full-show at E3 2013 for the Xbox 720 seems reasonable to me. And yes, I'm fully aware that "Xbox 1080" seems a more likely suspect for name. However, for the uninitiated, the "720" name is partly a running gag and nod to the fact that in spite of the hype, the Xbox 360 almost never does 720p natively for its top-shelf games.
Skyrim's as low as 576p, for instance. (similarly, the PS3 does 720p, but can't do AA+HDR)
As for the new generation taking so long (since normally it's been every five years like clockwork since about 1975) I have two ideas... And no, the time is NOT a testament to the current generation at all. Rather, it's either due to one of the following two scenarios:
1. We're really starting to see the effects of diminishing returns here. Yes, Moore's law gives us exponential growth in computing power, but the inverse seems to be true for the visuals: compare an Xbox 360 game to an Xbox game (take
Halo 3 vs.
Halo 2 for a good one) and now compare it to, say, previous inter-generational differences. Like, say, a GameCube/PS2 game vs. a N64/PS1 game. Or even earlier. It shows a clear trend: the visuals bump for each generation has been LESS apparent each time, even though the logarithmic growth has remained about the same. The result: less apparent (and hence less sellable) improvements for the next generation.
2. Both Microsoft and Sony failed to get anywhere near what they expected in sales for their consoles. Both expected to take the #1 spot; Microsoft believing that they'd finally bought their way in, and Sony just expecting it after the PS1 and PS2 so handily demolished their competition from Nintendo, Microsoft, and Sega. Hence, both makers have been trying to squeeze their current investments for all they could. Talk of a new generation, for once, began with Nintendo, which historically has always been the LAST to each generation's table, a year or two after their main competitors, (Master System, Genesis, PS1, PS2, 360) announcing and dating their console FIRST. This came about due to the Wii's saturation of the market, and their sales levels dropping; it went from out-selling the PS3 and 360 combined in 2007-8 to now being usually the slowest-selling.
[citation][nom]invlem[/nom]a 6000 series GPU is about 4 times more powerful than what's in the systems right now.[/citation]
Overall, you're pretty solidly on, though, of course, given the huge gap between the OEM parts and the enthusiast parts in a single generation, perhaps more clarification was required. The PS3 and 360 roughly equate to the GeForce 8600 GT or Radeon 3650. Four times the power would mean something around the range of maybe a GeForce GT 240 or Radeon 6570... Or in other words, close to the rate of the first popular top-end DirectX 10 cards, like the 8800 GTS and Radeon HD 2900XT. (coincidentally, back in 2006 when those came out I predicted that the 8th-gen consoles would be about that powerful
)
I might be willing to give the consoles a bit more power than that; up to maybe 50-100% more. But I'll admit being a little doubtful. For an ATi GPU, I'm expecting between 480-1024 stream processors, or 96-160 for an nVidia one. A major hampering factor will be that all such consoles will never pass a 128-bit memory interface: this is because it requires substantially more complexity on the mainboard, which is both much harder in a compact formfactor, as well as something that WON'T go down in price from miniaturization. So this means that consoles automatically start at a disadvantage against desktop GPUs with their 256-384-bit interfaces.
[citation][nom]hasten[/nom]I would be flabbergasted if both machines used the same hardware manufacturers. I have to believe they wouldn't that to happen. I'm sure MS has signed an exclusive contract with ATI for this GPU to give them a competitive edge. I could be wrong but it's hard to believe otherwise.[/citation]
Well, be flabbergasted all you want, because
it already happened. The CPUs for both the Xbox 360 and PS3? Both made by IBM, using the same architecture. (PowerPC 970FX, also what's known as the "G5" to Apple people) Similarly, the GDDR3 for both machines, aside from being identical (1400 MHz for both) was also both sourced from Samsung. The same GDDR3, at the same clock rate, is ALSO found in the Wii... And the Wii ALSO has an IBM-made CPU, though one that (apparently?) uses PPC 750CL architecture, aka G3. And a GPU from ATi. And let's not forget the real kicker:
all three consoles are assembled by Foxconn. Yep, the same guys who got infamy for assembling iPhones, too.