I looked at the BPI article (thanks for the link).
First, it was done for the British recording industry by Harris Interactive - an apparently independent firm. That may be a plus, but when your paycheque (we're talking UK here) is on the line, you may slant the direction of your research by being very selective of who you poll.
Second, of the 3442 people polled, only one third (1012 to be exact) said they pirate music. The article then states, "The survey showed a net increase in the use of web-based or “non-P2P” methods during the last six months". The increase is in the different methods of downloading and not necessarily the number of downloads.
Finally, the percents mentioned in the article are percents of a percent - 47% of the 1012 who download illegally; 31% of the 1012 who download illegally, or approximately 303 people, download illegally on a daily basis, which turns out to be about 10% of the overall people polled.
So how does that percent compare to people who steal from stores? Where does that rank compared to people who steal little things from the company they work for, like paper and such? In other words, how does it compare to the general level of theft across society.
I don't do illegal downloads, as I am a copyright holder and part of my income relies on that copyright, yet I feel the sense of frustration other people feel. Yes, I would like to take the movies I bought on DVD and put them on my Zen Vision or my wife's iPod. Living in Canada I don't have to be concerned about DMCA prosecution, so there are ways I can do this other than "piracy". The other thing I would be concerned about with illegal downloads is security. What better way to transmit trojans and viruses than through "free" downloads? Not being familiar with the P2P community, I would feel vulnerable.
The entertainment industries need to devise a new business model, but can they develop one that trusts the consumer? I don't think there is much trust within their own ranks, so I don't expect that they will be open to us anytime soon. When the book publishing industry wishes they could stop people from reselling an old book or trading it or even giving it away, what hope is there that any other group will help us, the people who provide them with their income, to resell a DVD or videocassette or CD or software. They'd send the police to your garage sale and have you hauled away in chians for that if they could.
I think Descendency (above) has it right. The first company to work with the consumer will make a killing, at least for a while. But perhaps the few greedy idiots will eventually ruin it for all once again.