i agree with you which is why i'm focusing there. i just don't like to say "go buy a new hdd" before i'm totally sure and convinced myself that's what it is. just an old habit from working with people over the years who don't want a guess, buy, check method that does not fix it the first time.
of course here i have plenty of extra parts to check for myself before i declare a specific fix. working over the intertubes it's a little harder to be sure.