Windows Phone Expected to Surpass iPhone By 2016

[del35]

Given the mediocrity of the iPhone, this is hardly surprising. People want to stay clear of the Apple jailyouin experience. Never thought one could think of the Windows phone as a beacon of freedom, but Apple has made it possible.

 

[eddieroolz]

I think this is just a reiteration of the earlier research...

 

[Guest]

@jerm1027
Have you actually used Windows Phone 7? For like more than 10 minutes? I have a Lumia 900 and I have to say I love it as much as my old Blackberry from 3-4 years ago. I was on iPhone 3,4 and 4s. Seriously, a very nice OS to use. And to make it more sensational by saying you would kill yourself just makes you look stupid.

 

[zaznet]

[citation][nom]eddieroolz[/nom]I think this is just a reiteration of the earlier research...[/citation]

You are right that IDC released these kinds of numbers before and had to recently update them since Microsoft is not yet on track with their previous prediction.

The fact that they put RIM holding on to a 6% market share (meaning greater than 12% growth for multiple years) amid declining user base is more than enough evidence to throw this report out. I haven't seen any indication that Google (Samsung, Motorola, HTC) or Apple can't keep up with the 12+% market growth while Microsoft seems in a poor position to grab market share if they had a sudden increase in demand (46.2% as IDC predicts) with a more limited supply of phones (which makes sense when you aren't selling out of your stock).

 

[9_breaker]

4 years after the world ends there will still be windows phone

 

[Hspito]

@jarnts
I bet its a great phone and it definitely looks very nice, but the success of a phone is not only attributed to the phone itself. As an iPhone user (and Apple fanboy) I can tell you the success of the phone its not due to the phone itself, its mainly attributed to the developers' support that it has received in the past years. There are many phones out there that IMO they look better, have better specs and do more stuff, but apart from the OS the main difference is the user experience and the huge support of the developers. This is just the way I see it.

If they want to make it they need the developers' full support.

 

[CaedenV]

While I disagree with the idea of WP taking over the phone market (sigh, we can dream though), I think they are right in saying that they will finally become a major player. iOS will still have a huge following, because they got in the market early and people tend to stick with what they know. Android will become a geek phone for people who like to mod and change things. WP will then have a strong presence for a good simple phone, and with excellent integration with one's PC and files (still waiting for a phone that will replace my netbook). But to say that they will be the top dog is a bit optomistic.

This is kinda like apple claiming that their R&D was 'at least 5 years ahead of the competition' lol. The fact is that where there is success, others will follow in that same general direction to siphon off of that market. WP will be huge with 8 (mostly due to cheaper licencing rather than it being a quality product), but if they start becoming a competitor with the big boys (which they currently are not) then the Android and iOS will simply change to better fit the perceived needs of the market better.

As for myself, I love WP for 3 main reasons:
1) it is simpler to use/navegate/do stuff on than Android
2) you do not need to go 'through the front door' for every single thing you want to do like with iOS
3) It runs very effectively on slower hardware, which means the phone lasts longer per battery weight. This means phones that finally last all day, or phones that are not as heavy as high end smartphones are.

things they need to work on:
1) slower hardware should translate to cheaper phones, which it has not so far.
2) not having an SD card is a deal breaker for me. I love my free 25GB of skydrive storage, but that is also not going to fit my music collection, and I do not want to rely on my data plan at all times. (WP8 should fix this)
3) I want more integration between my phone and desktops/laptops. Sync my browsing histroy, bookmarks, backgrounds, security settings, documents, etc between my devices.
4) I want more powerful software on my phone. I love that WP7 has a light office suite built in; make it better! Make incentives for programs like peach tree or quickbooks to run on it so that I can run credit cards and make/print invoices or receipts from my phone (That would be AWESOME, even if they are only partially functional). More/better games are a plus as well, but not a huge issue.
5) Allow for more user customization without allowing manufacturer/carriers to customize the hell out of the phone and turning it into the annoyance that is Android.

 

[brucen13]

This report is a perfect example of a bean-counting analyst sitting in a cubicle that never goes out into the real world. Microsoft may embed Windows phone into various products, but where's the consideration that Apple has embedded the iPhone into their fans' brains for many years now? To grow market share, MS has to make iPhone owners want to switch and I don't see that happening unless Apple goes out of business, and even then, iPhone users may continue to use their phones until the phone dies.
Secondly, where are all of these new phone buyers coming from to support a linear analysis of growth trends? A growth rate of 46% for a tiny user base is not that impressive when compared to a growth rate of 12% of a massive user base. The dude that did this analysis needs to go back to counting the Styrofoam peanuts used in packaging.

 

[nebun]

it's not going to happen, especially with the ugly UI and mediocre hardware from NOKIA....they need to step it up

 

[lamorpa]

Headline: Sensationalist Headline Produced from Absurd Extrapolation of Hockey Stick Graph

 

[Guest]

Dont' have any friends or family with windows phone.. dont' see it happening anytime soon. Who the heck is buying it?

 

[rantoc]

We will see what will happen after all its predictions, there have been many that seemed outrageous at the time their published but still ended up largely true. Personally i don't believe a market shift will be that speedy but MS have a real ace in their sleeve - If they execute the win8 strategy right i can't see why those numbers can't be true one day in the future but if they keep making real blunders (A few win8 start menu sized ones and they will end up wasting resources on a product no one wants).

 

[Guest]

in worldwide market, most mobile phones are dumbphones and not smartphones so the potential is there. tablet pc will also be the norm of the day like the pc is today.

 

[tulx]

[citation][nom]jhong721[/nom]Dont' have any friends or family with windows phone.. dont' see it happening anytime soon. Who the heck is buying it?[/citation]

The smart people.

 

[bigdog44]

If MS can properly integrate cross-platform gaming on pc/xbox/wp I can see it happening.

 

[SinisterSalad]

Boy, I wish I got paid to pull numbers out of my ass like these guys do.

 

[JOSHSKORN]

Let me guess. Windows won't support iPhones or Androids by 2016?

 

[lathe26]

Last report I saw put Windows Phone at 2.5% and SHRINKING. Even though they sold more phones than the previous year (Windows Mobile + Windows Phone), they grew slower than the market grew. The articles numbers and growth projections are way, way off.

The IDC published a botched projection report a year or so back claiming Windows Phone was going to take the over quickly. It didn't happen. This report is from the same people who botched it the first time. Simply put: don't trust IDC with Windows Phone projections until they start using REAL market data.

That said, Microsoft did a great job on the Windows Phone UI.

 

[internetlad]

Good luck with that, Windows Phone.

The social stigma surrounding M$ products VS crApple will bite it, i'm sure. It will be very very difficult for any MS product to be labelled as "cool" or "Hip"

 

[eatmeimadanish]

Windows came out with a mobile OS?