Windows Phone Expected to Surpass iPhone By 2016

[eatmeimadanish]

I find it remarkable that we continue to follow these predictions, despite them almost always being wrong this far out. There is absolutely know way of knowing what new technology or innovation is on the horizon that will be a game changer (cough iPhone). Also, as long as windows still makes crap... wait till windows 8 comes out and pisses you off, and the ecosystem goes into a cloud which is OS independent, and Microsoft no longer has the grip everyone thinks it does.

Also, how can a company so inept as blackberry (hey lets not add email support to our tablet... on a blackberry) could possibly come back is not only laughable, but insulting to my very limited intelligence.

 

[silver565]

Windows phone has great potential, it's a nice OS which is very slick. I can't see it failing any time soon, especially with the integration to xbox live.

Beating iOS by 2016 is ambitious though

 

[sykozis]

[citation][nom]jerm1027[/nom]Whichever ananalyst made this claim clearly hasn't used a Windows Phone and compared it to say Android or iOS. Nor have they used Windows 8. -_-[/citation]
I own both a Windows Phone 7 based HTC phone and an Android phone. Compared to Windows Phone 7, Android is garbage. The Android phone freezes constantly and it's battery life is laughable. Quite frankly, given the amount of Android fanboyism, I expected a much better experience than I've seen. After almost 2 months, I can't find anything my Android based phone can do...that my HTC running Windows Phone 7 can't....except irritate me to no end. I had my HTC for 5 months and aside from the speaker failing, the phone worked flawlessly. My Android phone however, will be getting replaced with a new Windows Phone 7 device. Also, WP7 devices don't suffer from 1 major issue that Android devices do. The carriers have NO control over updates to Windows Phone devices. Unlike Android where the carriers can decide whether or not a device gets an update/upgrade...Microsoft controls all updates to Windows Phone. This is also why carriers try to push buyers away from Windows Phone....the control issue. I'd rather MS control the flow of updates/upgrades to my phone, than the carrier. Plus, there's zero fragmentation with Windows Phone....

[citation][nom]nebun[/nom]it's not going to happen, especially with the ugly UI and mediocre hardware from NOKIA....they need to step it up[/citation]
Windows Phone 7 runs as well on that "mediocre" hardware as Android does on a quad core....

 

[bpdski]

It will be hard for a bankrupt company (RIM in the near future) to hold onto 6% market share. This analyst is not too bright.

 

[jaquith]

Pff...give me some of that 'stuff' maybe my wife will look like a 20 year old 10!

 

[applegetsmelaid]

The tech prophets have spoken... it shall be so.

 

[blazorthon]

[citation][nom]nebun[/nom]it's not going to happen, especially with the ugly UI and mediocre hardware from NOKIA....they need to step it up[/citation]

The hardware performance is less important than how well the OS can work with the hardware that it has. WP is very good at running on lower performance hardware without being slower. Besides, I don't think that the UI is ugly.

I wouldn't trade my Droid for a WP, but I've had one before and I've tried them out periodically. For example, the Lumia 900 is a very good phone. You could at least be fair and not ignorant of the devices that you're making claims about even if they're not what you prefer to buy.

 

[NedKelly77]

Is today April Fool's day?

 

[blazorthon]

[citation][nom]sykozis[/nom]I own both a Windows Phone 7 based HTC phone and an Android phone. Compared to Windows Phone 7, Android is garbage. The Android phone freezes constantly and it's battery life is laughable. Quite frankly, given the amount of Android fanboyism, I expected a much better experience than I've seen. After almost 2 months, I can't find anything my Android based phone can do...that my HTC running Windows Phone 7 can't....except irritate me to no end. I had my HTC for 5 months and aside from the speaker failing, the phone worked flawlessly. My Android phone however, will be getting replaced with a new Windows Phone 7 device. Also, WP7 devices don't suffer from 1 major issue that Android devices do. The carriers have NO control over updates to Windows Phone devices. Unlike Android where the carriers can decide whether or not a device gets an update/upgrade...Microsoft controls all updates to Windows Phone. This is also why carriers try to push buyers away from Windows Phone....the control issue. I'd rather MS control the flow of updates/upgrades to my phone, than the carrier. Plus, there's zero fragmentation with Windows Phone....Windows Phone 7 runs as well on that "mediocre" hardware as Android does on a quad core....[/citation]

Care to say exactly what models these phones are? Some droids suck, but some don't. It depends on which one you choose. For example, my somewhat older HTC Evo 4G has no crashing, freezing, etc. etc. and is very responsive, but my Samsung Transform does and can be slow to respond to input. The Evo 4G also has its extended battery and already lasts over a full day of heavy usage. It has a single core 1GHz Snapdragon, not some quad or even dual core... It's an older phone Droid, yet it can do that.

Also, if you truly care, you can updated your Droid to a custom copy of the newest version of Android whenever you want to regardless of what version the carriers want you to run. They only pretend to have control; the carriers don't really have control. You have control over your Droid and it can most certainly do many thing that WP7, as of yet, can't do. For example, I have many emulators and other such programs that are not present on Windows Phone and many of which aren't even present in Apple's iOS app store.

 

[_TuxUser_]

IDC predicted March 2011 that WP would pass iPhone in 2012, just remember that it's more or less only Nokia who makes WP nowadays and Nokia is loosing market shares each day, specially long time loyal consumers are those switching to Samsung, iPhone and Android.

There are already rumours about Samsung making a move to buy Nokia, this would mean an instant kicking of the Nokia CEO Elop (the man who gave the name to the Elop-Effect) and an end for the Lumia line. We already see how Samsung has learned of Nokias mistakes, the first Tizen device has been released to developers, sadly it will not have QT (at least not until they bought Nokia).

Just wait and see, next year IDC will be downgrading the WP market shares again and those of you who want to know a bit more about why, read the "101 Reasons Not to Buy A Windows Phone 7.5" thread: my-symbian.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=44034

 

[belardo]

I think those numbers are somewhat realistic...

Based on how well Windows 8 does. Having a desktop / tablet / xbox / phone share the exact same interface has its advantages. Easy syncing, easy usage, etc. I love the general usage of WP7 at this point (W7Launcher for Android does it a bit better) and if AT&T sold the Lumina 800, I'd most likely go for it... but AT&T is selling the giant 900, ugh.

But these issues: WP7 market share is bad... and when Windows 8 (PC) FAILS worse than vista, then WP8 market will tank. The only W8 tablets they are showing costs $700~1000.

Only thing I hate worse than Vista is Windows8 metro. Didn't know it would suck so bad until I tried it out. So bad, I tried out LinuxMint... which is very much Win7. No I'm not going Linux anytime soon. I'll just stay with Windows 7 for years... just like vista never touched my hardware.

Microsoft *IS* nervous... (good). 80% of their profit is Windows & Office. And since the world runs off the WEB and Office 365 (web based 2010) runs on ANYTHING with a browser... and MS killed PC gaming. WHO needs Windows?

Really? For the basic consumer who does email / facebook / browsing... any device can do that.

Windows 8 will either unite 3 markets into a strong platform (which I think *IS* a good idea) or collapse Windows market share, since Microsoft can't actually grow. Usage of Win8 is bad, I would have done it better (IMHO) by having a Metro launcher that someone can run.

A tech buddy was looking to get his son a Win8 PC on their next upgrade... (He loves his WP7 phone) He spent 20 mins with my Win8 test unit. He'll be sticking with Win7.

So no... I predict that WindowsPhone market share will grow to about 5-6%. RIM/blackberry will be dead in 9~18 months.

 

[Guest]

the post tells IDC is full of idiots.

 

[blazorthon]

[citation][nom]belardo[/nom]I think those numbers are somewhat realistic...Based on how well Windows 8 does. Having a desktop / tablet / xbox / phone share the exact same interface has its advantages. Easy syncing, easy usage, etc. I love the general usage of WP7 at this point (W7Launcher for Android does it a bit better) and if AT&T sold the Lumina 800, I'd most likely go for it... but AT&T is selling the giant 900, ugh.But these issues: WP7 market share is bad... and when Windows 8 (PC) FAILS worse than vista, then WP8 market will tank. The only W8 tablets they are showing costs $700~1000.Only thing I hate worse than Vista is Windows8 metro. Didn't know it would suck so bad until I tried it out. So bad, I tried out LinuxMint... which is very much Win7. No I'm not going Linux anytime soon. I'll just stay with Windows 7 for years... just like vista never touched my hardware.Microsoft *IS* nervous... (good). 80% of their profit is Windows & Office. And since the world runs off the WEB and Office 365 (web based 2010) runs on ANYTHING with a browser... and MS killed PC gaming. WHO needs Windows?Really? For the basic consumer who does email / facebook / browsing... any device can do that.Windows 8 will either unite 3 markets into a strong platform (which I think *IS* a good idea) or collapse Windows market share, since Microsoft can't actually grow. Usage of Win8 is bad, I would have done it better (IMHO) by having a Metro launcher that someone can run.A tech buddy was looking to get his son a Win8 PC on their next upgrade... (He loves his WP7 phone) He spent 20 mins with my Win8 test unit. He'll be sticking with Win7.So no... I predict that WindowsPhone market share will grow to about 5-6%. RIM/blackberry will be dead in 9~18 months.[/citation]

Windows 8 + Classic Shell = Metro is solved for those who dislike it. Classic shell is freeware.

 

[jerm1027]

[citation][nom]sykozis[/nom]I own both a Windows Phone 7 based HTC phone and an Android phone. Compared to Windows Phone 7, Android is garbage. The Android phone freezes constantly and it's battery life is laughable. Quite frankly, given the amount of Android fanboyism, I expected a much better experience than I've seen. After almost 2 months, I can't find anything my Android based phone can do...that my HTC running Windows Phone 7 can't....except irritate me to no end. I had my HTC for 5 months and aside from the speaker failing, the phone worked flawlessly. My Android phone however, will be getting replaced with a new Windows Phone 7 device. Also, WP7 devices don't suffer from 1 major issue that Android devices do. The carriers have NO control over updates to Windows Phone devices. Unlike Android where the carriers can decide whether or not a device gets an update/upgrade...Microsoft controls all updates to Windows Phone. This is also why carriers try to push buyers away from Windows Phone....the control issue. I'd rather MS control the flow of updates/upgrades to my phone, than the carrier. Plus, there's zero fragmentation with Windows Phone....Windows Phone 7 runs as well on that "mediocre" hardware as Android does on a quad core....[/citation]

Funny... I get 18+ hours battery life on my Evo 4G, no force closes or freezing and there are a plethora of features that I can do with my phone that I can't do on WP (Overclocking, tethering, debugging, unlocked bootloader, etc.). Granted, I'm running stock HTC software. You also have some misinformation about updates. The manufacturers controls updates on their phones, not the carriers. Notice how it's HTC Sense, not Sprint Sense? The carriers (especially CDMA, such as Sprint and Verizon) can only decide if they want phone on their network and that's about it. They can use that to get certain bloatware installed, but once it's on the market it's all the OEM. I had this annoying issue on my Epic 4G when it was trying to force me to update when the software I had was already newer than the update and the update would fail to install every time. I called up sprint and they said they weren't responsible for updates; Samsung was. I called Samsung and comfirmed it. Eventually found a fix through a developer forum. In speaking of updates, MS isn't supporting WP7 upgrade to WP8. So your phone will be out-dated by the end of this year. Mine already has Ice Cream Sandwich builds coming out. Do you know why there is fragmentation on Android? Freedom and choice. I'd love to pit my Evo 4G against your Windows Phone.

 

[watcha]

The bottom line is that regardless of what else it can do, in my opinion the single biggest requirement for users these days is apps.

I'm into sports myself and I would never buy a phone which didn't have an app which allowed me to watch those sports on my phone - it's a major selling point. The same applies in a whole range of genres. Android has all but caught up on the app front - when I bought an iPhone 4 2 years ago, one of the factors was having Sky Sports football app. Since then, Android is now supported on this app, albeit not all of them (eg Formula 1) - it's been a gradual process but apps is increasingly not a reason to buy iOS over Android.

Microsoft, on the other hand, has an incredibly large task trying to catch up to both of these app ecosystems. They will need to get a large market before apps even get developed en mass - and that isn't going to be easy with iOS and Android dominating the market. Once that demand picks up, they will still have a long way to go to catch up with the app development that the other 2 platforms have. If and only if they manage that, they can start to compete in a meaningful way - but that seems a long long way off to me.

 

[lamorpa]

[citation][nom]eatmeimadanish[/nom]... There is absolutely know way of knowing...[/citation]
They're is absolutely no way of noing?

 

[blazorthon]

[citation][nom]lamorpa[/nom]They're is absolutely no way of noing?[/citation]

Yay for homophones.