For this response, I have limited myself to the data provided in the article. I could probably get way more exact figures if I did some research but, I am not going to do that. My response is an exercise in how to analyze an article for continuity and reasonableness. Nothing else so please accept it as such.
According to the article, we can assume an avg. of 19,960 units sold per day in the U.S. between 11/19/2006 and 12/31/2010 if we accept the number in the article that Nintendo sold 30,000,000 Wiis during that time (30,000,000 / 1503 = 19,960, I used 1503 as that is the number of days between 11/19/2006 and 12/31/2010.)
If avg. daily units sold continue at the same rate, then from the first of this year through 6/30/2011 we can assume around 3,592,800 units would be sold during that time frame (180 days from 1/1/2011 through 6/30/2011 multiplied by the daily average of 19,960 units and we get 3,592,800.) Adding those units sold to the total of Wiis sold since launch we can expect around a total of 33,592,800 Wiis sold in the U.S. by June 31st, 2011. That is far short of the 45,000,000 units sold needed for Nintendo to showcase their NextGen console according to the article.
I don’t really care if Nintendo introduces a new console or not at E3. What really bothers me is that the author of this article states, “Surely Nintendo will have raked in its required 45 million before June-- more than 30 million units had sold as of December 2010.” Had the author done some very simple arithmetic, I would hope they never would have considered making that statement. What makes it even worse, is that at the beginning of the article, the author knowingly admits they are aware Wii’s age and sales figures and so should have been able to make a more educated guess at the totals; having sold roughly 30 million units since launch the Wii’s six month sales avg. is far shy of 15 million units. Here is what the author said, “The Wii also turns 5-years-old this year, meaning Nintendo is due for a hardware refresh soon.”
Even if we don’t work out the exact answer and simply estimate instead, how do you reasonably come to the conclusion that Nintendo can sell 15 million units in six months when u can guestimate that they sell about 3.6 million units during a six month period? I mean the author’s estimate is so far off given the facts they provided. It really makes me pause and contemplate why this article was even written.
Oh Well, I guess that will be left to a future post.