I'm not sure I see your logic. Microsoft tends to trend themselves ahead of the curve but until they put honest, heartfelt production controls into their hardware ahead of their software (which also in some cases is flagging), they won't win. Keep in mind that whatever hardware you get from Microsoft, it's going to be built by the lowest bidder. This is not the case with either Sony nor Nintendo as they know that once a customer has a bad experience regardless how things turn out, they won't be back. Like someone else earlier said, in the NA market, there are a lot of stupid, gullible customers out there...
I think to a greater degree, Microsoft is ahead with regards to how they've rolled out their online presence and to that end, they will continue to set the trend. However their telling black eye will continue to be their resistance to admitting they've dropped the ball on their hardware development, construction, and, until very recently, their support. With the failure rate of their Xbox 360 consoles still significantly higher than that of their competitors, this cannot be seen as win by any standard.
Sony isn't the end-all, be-all either but, in their favor, their slow-moving behavior has meant that the psuedo-racist/sexist outlaw behavior that pervades the Xbox Live communities hasn't had much chance to invade the PlayStation Network community in the same way. Also, because of Microsoft's unwillingness to really police the behavior, I, for one, won't be willing to give them any of my money regardless of how solid the offerings of their community are. This, I can tell you, comes more from my experiences in customer service more than from my own personal experiences on the service because, to be honest, why should I pay an extra $10 every month to play a game online and be poorly treated? While my experiences on PlayStation Network have been sparce (I only deal with people I know there), I also know that I'm getting the full value out of my hard-earned dollars without paying an extra fee. Keep in mind that both PS3 and Xbox 360 games cost exactly the same in the majority of retail outlets but with PS3 games, you can play online anytime with your internet connect and not have to pay Sony anything additional... just sayin'...
Nintendo isn't really flagging at all but by the standards set, they have yet to truly venture into the Next-Gen console territory. The Wii is maybe a little more powerful than Sony's original PSOne but that's about it. Okay, maybe significantly more powerful, but aside from the revolutionary control scheme, there isn't anything next-gen about the Wii. I do get tired of people grouping it in the same category as the PlayStation 3 or the Xbox 360 when in reality, it's not...
Nintendo has been very adept at realizing their strengths both in dealing with their own IP and with coordinating / promoting third party goods. It has kept them in the game and even slightly ahead of their competitors, such as they are. However, that said, I would have to say that until Nintendo actually really steps up in their hardware (and why SHOULD they when they dominate the handheld market so thoroughly), they should be removed from this discussion...
Going back to Microsoft for a moment... While Natal looked really interesting from the outside, a look under the hood disclosed a significant number of shortcomings. First, how it's going to be set-up. Like the Move, it will require a camera but because it's syncing up with a form and using some level of depth reception, you won't be able to really set one up and play in anything but a sterile environment. What if, say, your dog or cat walks into rang of your gaming? So far, there's been no direct answer to that but my insider info is telling me that setting up for testing software is also a very expensive and sterile sort of set-up. Nothing like what an actual customer experience would be like. Not everyone has a 12x12 sterile room with correct and ambient lighting available to set up their Xbox 360 with Natal whereas either the Wii or the Move shouldn't have those issues. Having played with the Move and owning a Wii, I've never encountered an issue with people walking in front of or behind me affecting my game play... okay, maybe with the Wii because the IR link is temporarily blocked...
Oh, and how is the Xbox 360 going to support 3D? The PlayStation 3 doesn't have to intrinsicly change their hardware to do it and have already added firmware in support of 3D transition. My understanding is that Microsoft will have to wait until 2013 or release a new console earlier to support 3D in full. I'd have to double-check my white papers on this to be sure but that's my current understanding of the situation. Oh, and didn't they also lose the hardware standard war between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD? Also, whose consoles have been used daisy-chained and used as super-computers by the government? If that's not trending ahead of the curve, I don't know what is...
From a company in motion perspective, yes, Microsoft is way out in front with regards to their service offerings. They have been for a while and have profitted mightily from it. However, I think that in the coming year, provided that Sony can get out of its own way, they will close the gap significantly by Q3 of FY 11 in terms of their community offerings and ability to provide significant controlled service to their customers...
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