Archived from groups: alt.video.ptv.tivo (
More info?)
> My question was partly rhetorical
. Although I was kind of
> wondering if anybody would correct me about the numbers being secret.
Sorry, tone is often hard to express in a news post. But everything
I've read says that the numbers of the deal are undisclosed, meaning
anything concerning expected revenue/profits is blatant and
unsubstantiated speculation.
>>I'd say there's two factors contributing here. One, Tivo is a
>>*loved* company with loyal followers not based on financials. Fans
>>often see owning stock as one method of supporting a company they
>>like (which isn't necessarily wrong). Any sign of good news,
>>particularly after a long period of bad or no news will likely cause
>>many of those fans to purchase stock, regardless of valuation.
>>
>>Two, after such a long period of bad or no news, Tivo's stock was
>>probably depressed below what it really should have been.
>
>
> Well, the above logic suggests those same fans (e.g., myself) were
> also holding their Tivo stock irrationally long, artifically INFLATING
> the price.
I'd say there was some of that too. It's all just pure speculation on
my part. But it may be that there are now many *more* Tivo fans then
there were, so a much larger audience was just inspired to buy stock.
> I hate to say it, but prior to this deal, Sean kind of had a point.
> Tivo really needed this. Now the company will almost surely survive,
> although what their revenues will be is anybody's guess. Buying or
> even holding the stock now is sheer speculation.
First of all, "Sean" was far from the only person who thought Tivo would
be really helped by having a Cable deal. I've said that many times, as
have many others. Giving credit to Sean for that is undeserved. What
differentiated Sean's view was that he said that without one Tivo could
not survive. Most of us disagreed with that.
But buying or holding Tivo stock now is strictly a gamble until the deal
numbers come out, there's no arguing with that. What may be worth
arguing is how *good* of a gamble it is ;-).
>
> Not that I'm planning to sell. Who knows? Maybe this deal will
> strengthen the (already strong) Tivo brand to the point that other
> suitors will come knocking.
See, you think it's a good gamble! ;-). I hope it pays off. It did for
Google IPO buyers!
>>Also, remember that the stock market typically buys on the rumor and
>>sells on the news.
>
> Yeah, people are pretty stupid.
Well, stupidity is part of it, certainly. But part of investing is
guessing (hopefully an educated guess!) what the market will do *before*
other people make the same decision. In such an environment buying on
rumors is naturally encouraged. That doesn't mean it's successful.
Randy S.