Microsoft, Intel Want to Push iPad's Market Share Below 50%

[blazorthon]

[citation][nom]ATribesMan[/nom]Thank you blazorthorn... the voice of reason!!! Apple is DEFINITELY not replacing Intel in its desktop and server line. In fact, they are more likely to go Intel on the tablet line if Android on Intel and Windows on Intel are indeed a success. The next version of Intel's ATOM due out late this year will be scaled down to 22 nm AND have the IvyBridge GPU. The GPU will be about 4x faster and the CPU could be scaled up quite a bit just due to power savings. In 2013 when Silvermont comes out and does out of order execution, the ATOM may very well be a great deal more powerful than the ARM CPUs with only small additional power requirements. As far as ARM on desktop CPUs, you will not see this happen universally until 2015 when ARM has a 64-bit part. When this happens, you will likely see a lot more ARM on the desktop/low-end laptop market and possibly the rackmounted low-end server market. Without 64-bit though, they aren't a big player in anything outside of tablets. While Win 8 will still have a 32-bit build (for ARM), it is still mostly built with 64-bit in mind and most consumers will be pushed over to that code base. The next Windows builds probably won't support 32-bit at all (much like Win2000 didn't support 16-bit at all).[/citation]

Win 2000 supported 16 bit code, it just wasn't a 16 bit OS. Even XP supported 16 bit code (and used a lot of it too). Windows 9 (or whatever M$ names it. 9 is seeming likely if M$ wants to stay on this track of numbers) will probably have a 32 bit version because not all 32 bit programs can run on 64 bit Windows. Most can, but not all. M$ can't afford to piss off the many businesses that run old 32 bit programs. In fact, most of these programs probably don't run on 64 bit Windows because they contain 16 it code and 64 bit Windows is where M$ finally dropped support for 16 bit code.

Otherwise, I think I can say that you're absolutely correct. The 22nm Atoms will be far better than even Cortex A15, so ARM will need an answer to them and fast. ARM needs to build not only better CPUs on a smaller process node, but also needs to improve the scaling of their chips if they want to enter the higher power X86 market properly.

 

[tuffjuff]

[citation][nom]ironmb[/nom]Apple user ^[/citation]


I'm a Windows user - just got done building a ~$2,000 desktop, actually, and I for one won't be switching to Windows 8 until I know for sure that you can still use the classic desktop. I know there's some command you can enable that lets you bypass Metro, but my understanding is it's not planned on being made available beyond the RC's. I don't want my 24" gaming desktop to look like a smart phone, thanks.

 

[tuffjuff]

[citation][nom]ericburnby[/nom]Another person who doesn't get it. There won't be any x86 tablets, at least not to start. They will be ARM tablets and won't be running any of the desktop software you expect.And why would someone waste time trying to use a tablet for serious work when they aren't designed for that? Sounds like you really need a good laptop, not a tablet.[/citation]

Exactly.

You can get a Windows based tablet (convertible laptop, actually) right now, it's called a Dell Duo if I'm not mistaken, and it's only $500 or $600. The problem is that Intel's Atom is obnoxiously slow, and the battery life isn't comparable to a tablet. My iPad 2 routinely gets 8-10 hours per charge, is much quicker to use for the casual duties it was designed for, is smaller, looks nicer, and at 10" may be larger than the Dell I mentioned (I forget).

The beauty of the tablet market is that there is SO MUCH ROOM. If you want a dirt cheap tablet and don't mind a little bit of lag, get a Kindle Fire or Nook Touch. Want something that feels and looks premium and has one heck of a software selection, get an iPad. Want something in between the two? There's about 500 different tablets to choose from.

I think the "dream tablet" to me is the Asus Slate. I don't even know if they still sell it, but when it came out a year and a half ago or so, it was gorgeous. Svelte, felt like it was built out of a brick of solid aluminum (a good thing - I prefer my expensive electronics to not be made of flimsy, shiny plastic), Core i5 (albeit ULV so it ran at something like 1.5-1.6Ghz), 4 gigs RAM, SSD, etc. The only problems were the HD capability they offered, stock, were small, and the thing was expensive. The cheapest model was $999, which came with I want to say a 32 gig SSD which was probably half full with stock software.

If I can some day buy this same type of thing, only faster, and for under a grand with a 128GB SSD, sign me up!

 

[blazorthon]

[citation][nom]DjEaZy[/nom]http/www.ubergizmo.com/2010/09/n [...] sktop-pcs/http/www.pcworld.com/businesscen [...] _only.html... there is movement in arm direction in server and desktop space... and... intel haz the CPU crown... but intel GPU's sux... so? AMD and nVidia haz the best GPU's out there, that can do more... just need to implement more... GPGPU? OpenCL?... i use video editing, that leverages GPU, and it's much cheeper and much faster, than with a high end intel CPU... even WinZip haz GPGPU acceleration for compressing files with *.zipx ... all of the adobe creative suite uses some kind of GPU acceleration... and the problem for intel will be ultrahigh resolution displays... like in iPad... ... look here, where is the fastest intel GPU...http/www.tomshardware.com/review [...] 107-7.html[/citation]

Intel's Medfields use the same graphics products that are used in some of Apple's chips. For example, the dual core Medfields are supposed to have graphics that rivals the Z5X chips. That chip supposedly has the best graphics of the upcoming ARM chips (if I remember correctly), so that's actually some pretty good graphics that Intel has going. The single core Medfields also have good graphics with better GPUs to come. Most software does not have GPGPU acceleration. Intel is also working with very high resolutions for their upcoming parts.

Intel's desktop and notebook graphics do not suck. Their HD 4000 IGP is approaching the A6's graphics and Haswell is supposed to get a huge graphics upgrade over even that. Besides, Intel's graphics isn't even gaming graphics, it's general purpose/low end graphics. It is also the best for one GPGPU/OpenCL/GL type of work, encoding/transcoding media, even faster than the top graphics cards because it has hardware acceleration instead of shader throughput. For what Intel's HD graphics is intended for, it does it's job spectacularly. It's not intended to replace discrete cards for gaming. Intel might position Haswell to replace low end discrete cards for entry level gaming, but even then, I doubt it. AMD and even Nvidia wouldn't like that at all because the low end is where most of the money is and that would require Intel making their graphics have performance at least comparable to a 6670.

Intel doesn't want to dedicate a huge amount of die space to the many transistors that would be necessary to go beyond what they already have planned. Why would Intel want to make mid/high end graphics when most people won't use them? It would just be a waste of their money and resources. If Intel wanted to, they could make CPUs with graphical power similar to the Radeon 6950 or 6970 on their 22nm node and it would be extremely energy efficient, but it would still suck up a lot of power and most of it's power would go unused, except by the gaming community. Intel makes low end graphics because that is where the most money and highest profit margins are because that is where the vast majority of the demand is. Even for gamers, most gamers don't go beyond a 6850 or 6870, so having high end graphics options is not a high profit market.

Furthermore, ARM is next to useless for servers if it can't address enough memory. Until 64 bit ARM comes out, it won't make it for servers. Even once it comes out, there is also the problem with having software that coordinates the processing power of hundreds and thousands of ARM CPUs. How many web server programs are compatible with ARM servers? As of right now, the answer is probably none. ARM isn't going anywhere unless it can beat X86 in power efficiency, maintenance, ease of use, software compatibility, and outright performance, among other factors. Unless ARM can meet or beat X86 in all of these, it can't displace X86 in the server market.

Even getting 44 or 48 bit addressing like PAE would be enough to make a big difference. However, that probably won't happen (remember, ARM is supposed to be kept as simple as reasonably possible), so we wait until 64 bit ARM before making any decisions on whether or not it's feasible.

 

[rolled]

I do own the new ipad, it was a nice gift from a relative. I would not have bought a tablet otherwise. I will say this though, apple's success stems from how much they prioritize putting together a seamless user interface. Just as a lot of people have already commented, in order for these other guys to succeed, they really gotta think more about the big picture and look beyond just the hardware and the operating system.

Also, it's amusing whenever anyone decides to bring up an objective point about apple on this forum, it always has to start off with something along the lines of "I'm not an apple fan"

 

[DjEaZy]

[citation][nom]GoodGrief[/nom]DJ Easy, there is no movement in the desktop and ARM space other than rumors from blogs. ARM servers are 32-bit so there is little that one can do with them at the moment. That is why you don't see consumers/businesses jumping all over that. Please tell me where I can buy my ARM desktop so you can show me where the movement is. Intel isn't using an Intel GPU yet on its SOCs. They are using the same tech the other top ARM vendors are using. ARM is just now making its GPUs and Intel will be using a much more powerful GPU in its SOCs soon. nVidia's GPUs on their Tegra platform are not that powerful. AMD has no competing product. What in the world are you even talking about here? No one is running OpenCL on a tablet. If you want to have this discussion in the workstation/desktop market, then fine, but I'm not sure what your discussion has to do with tablets. As far as GPU acceleration, few things use it. WinZip will support it for OpenCL but few things support it. Video compression and decompression is one of the few things actively using it and INtel is far superiod in that market, LOL. Ultra High resolution displays is something Intel is taking under its wing so not sure where you are going with that either other than that you are, again, wrong. DJ, you are nothing more than an AMD shill and it makes you look bad. AMD has no product in this sector so no one cares about OpenCL and tablets. AMD has few sectors that it is doing well in outside of graphics so thanks for the GPU chart. Really it was interesting (sarcasm noted). GPUs are only a small portion of compute. CPUs do 95%+ of your daily work. If you don't know this, then you aren't the smartest guy out there. Intel's CPU is integrated into its GPUs as are many DSP functionality, memory controllers, bus controllers, etc. You can consider it all a CPU at this point as it has all been centralized.[/citation]
... it may be... but the glimpses and tendencies can be seen... why nVidia is so heavily invested in Tegra? Why AMD needed to buy ATi? Why MS build ARM version of Windows? Why video and Photo software is going GPGPU and/or OpenCL? Even antivirus and compression software are taping in to that...
http/hexus.net/tech/news/software/21623-kaspersky-works-nvidia-gpu-virus-busting/
http/www.geeks3d.com/20111217/winzip-16-5-will-support-opencl-for-ultra-fast-compression-and-decompression/

 

[tuffjuff]

[citation][nom]rolled[/nom]I do own the new ipad, it was a nice gift from a relative. I would not have bought a tablet otherwise. I will say this though, apple's success stems from how much they prioritize putting together a seamless user interface. Just as a lot of people have already commented, in order for these other guys to succeed, they really gotta think more about the big picture and look beyond just the hardware and the operating system.Also, it's amusing whenever anyone decides to bring up an objective point about apple on this forum, it always has to start off with something along the lines of "I'm not an apple fan"[/citation]

And it's always up-voted to the max. Clearly the market of the general Tom's reader is anti-Apple. Not un-common on computer hardware websites.

I don't care what anybody says, my iPad 2 does what I need of it perfectly. It's instant, always on, lasts seemingly forever (compared to the M17xR3 in our household) on a charge and is small enough to enjoy it's mostly permanent life on a bedside table, or in the occasional kitchen or car trip. It also has the best selection, not even comparable, of apps and games of any mobile platform sans a Windows or Mac based laptop, and even then, I'm willing to bet the App Store is better equipped than the Mac Store. Were I still practicing, it would make an excellent business travel companion, also.

 

[Vladislaus]

[citation][nom]ericburnby[/nom]Another person who doesn't get it. There won't be any x86 tablets, at least not to start. They will be ARM tablets and won't be running any of the desktop software you expect.And why would someone waste time trying to use a tablet for serious work when they aren't designed for that? Sounds like you really need a good laptop, not a tablet.[/citation]
First Intel doesn't have a ARM SoC, so if a tablet is launched with a Intel CPU it certainly won't be using a ARM architecture. Also Microsoft has stated that the ARM version will arrive after the x86 version, so in all likelihood the first Windows 8 tablets will be powered by a x86 processor.

 

[Vladislaus]

[citation][nom]DjEaZy[/nom]http/www.ubergizmo.com/2010/09/n [...] sktop-pcs/http/www.pcworld.com/businesscen [...] _only.html... there is movement in arm direction in server and desktop space... and... intel haz the CPU crown... but intel GPU's sux... so? AMD and nVidia haz the best GPU's out there, that can do more... just need to implement more... GPGPU? OpenCL?... i use video editing, that leverages GPU, and it's much cheeper and much faster, than with a high end intel CPU... even WinZip haz GPGPU acceleration for compressing files with *.zipx ... all of the adobe creative suite uses some kind of GPU acceleration... and the problem for intel will be ultrahigh resolution displays... like in iPad... ... look here, where is the fastest intel GPU...http/www.tomshardware.com/review [...] 107-7.html[/citation]
This is like saying there is a movement in the x86 direction in smart-phones because they're starting to be commercialized.

 

[Gundam288]

And Intel will still be making tons of money, nothing new here other than Apple might have to start inventing some new product to dominate a new market, yet again....

 

[Vladislaus]

[citation][nom]DjEaZy[/nom]why nVidia is so heavily invested in Tegra?[/citation]For the same reason why intel invested on medfield, diversification. There's a lot of money untapped on the mobile world.

 

[tuffjuff]

[citation][nom]Vladislaus[/nom]For the same reason why intel invested on medfield, diversification. There's a lot of money untapped on the mobile world.[/citation]

Doesn't nVidia own a pretty big portion of the smartphone marketshare, at this point?

 

[back_by_demand]

[citation][nom]halcyon[/nom]When you're on top everyone wants a bite so this isn't really a surprise.[/citation]
People were saying that about Microsoft 10 years ago, there is something wrong with the human race when it hates to see something doing well. Look at all the successful things out there and tell me there isn't unwarranted loathing involved somewhere.
Facebook
Google
Microsoft
Apple
Unless the CEO of these companies raped your mother and stabbed you in the neck with a broken bottle they don't deserve half of the vitriol poured out in the forums
...
Sure pointing out disliked business pracices and even posting examples is fine, but hatred? You really don't know the meaning of the word.

 

[blazorthon]

[citation][nom]DjEaZy[/nom]... it may be... but the glimpses and tendencies can be seen... why nVidia is so heavily invested in Tegra? Why AMD needed to buy ATi? Why MS build ARM version of Windows? Why video and Photo software is going GPGPU and/or OpenCL? Even antivirus and compression software are taping in to that... http/hexus.net/tech/news/softwar [...] s-busting/http/www.geeks3d.com/20111217/wi [...] mpression/[/citation]

AMD bought Ati because they wanted to get into the graphics market. Nvidia is invested into Tegra because they want to make money off of it. M$ is making an ARM version of Windows because they can make money off of increasing the available amount of platforms for their operating system. Video/photo software is no going GPGPU/OpenCL, it's starting to take advantage of it. Most aspects of even this software is done on the CPU.

Companies like to diversify their markets because if they fail in one or more markets, they have others to fall back onto in order to avoid going out of business. It's just common sense. If I'm in five markets and fail in one or two, then I'm still in three or four markets and can recover fairly easily. If I'm in one or two markets and I fail in one or two markets, then I'm screwed. Being in multiple markets also means multiple sources of revenue.

A lot of work CAN'T be done on a GPU. For example, so much work is just too complex for the simple processing elements in GPUs and similarly purposed chips. Work that can't be run on a GPU or is not very parallel must be run on the CPU.

 

[Vladislaus]

[citation][nom]tuffjuff[/nom]Doesn't nVidia own a pretty big portion of the smartphone marketshare, at this point?[/citation]
If I'm not mistaken Qualcomm, Samsung, Texas Instruments, Marvell and Broadcom sell more SoCs than nVidia. They have a good portion, but I wouldn't call it big.

 

[phych]

These companies need to stop trying to copy Apple products and start focusing on creating their own stuff. Everyone keeps trying to make the next iPad or iPhone killer but it will never happen because it's just an Apple copy and it will always be compared to the Apple product that it's trying to kill.

Come up with stuff that Apple doesn't have and they'll have something that Apple can't beat.

 

[nebun]

[citation][nom]Vladislaus[/nom]What intel component is used on the iPad?[/citation]
the graphics chip and the wireless module, maybe even the SSD...from what i recall

 

[dreadlokz]

"Want to"?
HAVE TO!!!

 

[halcyon]

[citation][nom]back_by_demand[/nom]People were saying that about Microsoft 10 years ago, there is something wrong with the human race when it hates to see something doing well. Look at all the successful things out there and tell me there isn't unwarranted loathing involved somewhere.FacebookGoogleMicrosoftAppleUnless the CEO of these companies raped your mother and stabbed you in the neck with a broken bottle they don't deserve half of the vitriol poured out in the forums...Sure pointing out disliked business pracices and even posting examples is fine, but hatred? You really don't know the meaning of the word.[/citation]

You have a very mature attitude...but you have to realize a lot of Tom's audience is rather young.

 

[DjEaZy]

[citation][nom]Phych[/nom]These companies need to stop trying to copy Apple products and start focusing on creating their own stuff. Everyone keeps trying to make the next iPad or iPhone killer but it will never happen because it's just an Apple copy and it will always be compared to the Apple product that it's trying to kill.Come up with stuff that Apple doesn't have and they'll have something that Apple can't beat.[/citation]
... agree...