I already went through all the figures, numbers and math before... So I know that OnLive is still going to fail. It's going to run for a few months, then shutter, leaving all those that "bought" games on them without anything to show for their cash.
Simply put, trying to shove this whole thing across as "cloud computing" runs into a bunch of problems, that currently don't show up yet, but will rather soon.
■The first biggie comes from the connections to the servers themselves; you're streaming a video of you playing. The STANDARD bitrate for a DVD movie, using MPEG-2, is 9.8 megabits per second, twice what OnLive is calling for. And what is DVD quality? It's 480i/p. And no, it's only ~30 fps, (technically 29.97) not 60. And of course, the tradeoff for not going with a full 237.3-mbps bitrate for uncompressed video means you get artifacting.
It's true that better compression methods (namely from the H.264 family, be they MPEG-4, Xvid, etc.) could offer a better deal, but not by a HUGE margin; a 5-meg connection still means that even at 640x480, you're looking at artifacts even at 30fps instead of 60. And more-advanced codecs have a downside, too: they require more CPU power; that means that if the resolution is high enough, it's quite possible that a game would run SLOWER through OnLive than directly. 'Course, the service probably cleverly offsets it a little by actually streaming at only 20 or even 15fps, under the idea that the user won't know the difference.
And of course, there's the whole issue with latency; in a game on a console or PC, there's very, very little latency between your input and what's on-screen; technically, using a traditional double-buffer-rendered game, it's going to be equal to whatever the current frame delay is. (i.e, 1 second divided by your fps) So 30fps means a latency of approximately 33ms, the time for the computer to pick up the input, calculate the effects of it in the came core, then pass off the results to the rendering engine to be eventually displayed.
Inserting a whole two-way Internet connection to this makes it vastly more complicated, and WILL add tons of lag. First, there's the nominal latency just between when the OnLive service on the computer reacts to the input, and then packages it into the next 'input packet' sent to their servers. Then it has to bounce across the Internet to get there, potentially adding anywhere from 30-200ms of latency assuming a GOOD connection. Then once it's finally arrived at the server that processes it (after being shunted around OnLive's own farm network) it then still has to go through the normal process of converting the input to game data, then to a rendered output; since OnLive obviously doesn't like wasting power, they aren't running infinite framerates, and instead, only allocate enough power to get exactly 30fps, which means +33 miliseconds there. Then after that, it STILL has to be encoded, which takes yet more time; possibly way more if a separate server handles it. Then the video packet makes the trek back to the user, which then their computer takes the time to DECODE it; assuming you don't have an enthusiast rig already, and you're running the highest video setting your CPU will handle streaming, this'll add another 30-35ms in lag. All told, you're looking at a minimum of 250-500 miliseconds of extra lag, potentially way more. Sure, many people likely are too slow to notice it. But most serious gamers would get headaches from trying this; it'd be basically as hard as playing a game where you got 4fps.
■Of course, the above wall of text is only ONE major part of the problem... The rest lies with their own servers, and the permanency (or specifically, lack thereof) of their service. Basically, you rest at the mercy of your ability to stay in touch with OnLive:
■Your Internet connection go out? Well, you could play single-player games on your computer, but not OnLive!
■OnLive's servers went down while you were playing? Well, no gaming until they come back up, and you lost whatever you did right before then!
■Their servers are all full? Either you wind up having to wait more, or you might get in, and have it running poorly!
■Random Internet disruptions result in the normally shortest path to OnLive being useable? Well, now you've got more lag.
■OnLive folds? Say good-bye to all the games you paid them money for.
All told, it's got tons of huge problems, and they'll only start becoming apparent once people actually start using the service.
[citation][nom]filmman03[/nom]got to demo OnLive at E3 this year... not too bad. barely noticeable lag.[/citation]
That's because at E3, you were playtesting on servers that were probably located in that very booth. At worst, it was located in a trailer outside the convention center; this is like what they did at previous demonstrations of their service. The other advantage there is that they had VERY few clients connecting to a large array of servers; real-world usage would NEVER be able to replicate that.
[citation][nom]wortwortwort[/nom]You may be able to play the games, but it might be at the minimum settings. You could get better than that just by cramming a 5770 into your generic Best Buy office PC. In a year or two, buying a cheap GPU will have been cheaper.[/citation]
Indeed, many people don't realize that in many cases, a good-value graphics card can turn a relatively-recent "BestBuy/Wal-Mart PC" into a decent-level gaming rig. Top-end CPUs are overkill these days, and even those "crappy" OEM boxes tend to pack a decent amount of RAM.
[citation][nom]mlopinto2k1[/nom]Let's say 10,000 people are logged in all playing Crysis... how do they accomplish this task? Do they have 10,000 machines rendering the images for each player????[/citation]
More likely, the first few hundred would get in, and all the rest would get a message of "The servers are busy, please try again later."
[citation][nom]CPfreak[/nom]I don't uderstand, I live in the netherlands and I have 100MB/s for 15 euro per month.[/citation]
Availability of decent Internet varies depending on region/country. Ethernet-to-home (which it sounds like you have there) is almost unheard-of in most of the world; in North America (and also many other places like UK and Australia) the standard fare is 1.5 mbps cable-based Internet that is generally unreasonable in cost, and often high in latency.