[citation][nom]scuba dave[/nom]Awesome. As great as flash was, everything needs to be replaced eventually. I wonder when it will be time for x86.[/citation]
Probably when someone makes an ARM instruction set for x86/AMD64...
The term "HTML5" is still such a generic classification it's tough to say what it will look like in the future, and what it will encompass. Adobe already realized Flash is dying and this is why they released Adobe Edge, which basically is an HTML5 version of flash. The thing with HTML5 is it still can't come close to the dynamic animations capable in Flash among other things. I think once Adobe Edge or similar technology can do what Flash does but better, Flash will die soon thereafter. Until then, there is currently no tool to take it's place.
HTML5 is great for making snappy web applications, but currently it just can't do advanced animations and is pretty limited in regards to the creative realm. If Microsoft wants browsers to be plugin-free, perhaps they should start making Internet Explorer not such a pain in the ass to design and develop for.
//side note: I've been a web designer for about 7 years so I'm speaking from my own experience.
Plugins serve specific needs of users that cannot be met by a browser or OS. if HTML5 becomes ubiquitous with all browsers and can adequately do what Flash can do and the tools to develop HTML5 objects are readily available and affordable then most developers will eventually shift to adapting HTML5. Come to think of it, aren't all apps just plugins to the OS? Why do you use Word? Because notepad or wordpad are darn too stupid.
"There is little doubt that Flash is losing traction these days and HTML5 is gaining mindshare."
Problem is that according to the reality we have it appears that HTML has lots of development to go through before it becomes anywhere near as viable as Flash currently is.
As much as folks hate flash I have to say that over the years I have had very little trouble with it, unless I did something wrong on my end, other than that it has been very reliable, if bloated program, if there is anything detrimental about Flash it is the bloated nature of it. Adobe has only itself to blame when flash goes away.